基于广义半不变量及最大熵法的电网概率潮流分析  

Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis Based on Generalized Cumulant Methods and Maximum Entropy Methods

作　　者：孙蓉 吕振华[1] 廖星星 陈兵 王锐 朱晨宸 卫志农 SUN Rong;Lv Zhenhua;LIAO Xingxing;CHEN Bing;WANG Rui;ZHU Chenchen;WEI Zhinong(Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 211103,China;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Taizhou Power Supply Company of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Taizhou 225300,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,南京市211103 [2]河海大学能源与电气学院,南京市211100 [3]国网江苏省电力有限公司泰州供电公司,江苏省泰州市225300

出　　处：《电力建设》2020年第7期33-41,共9页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51277052);国家电网有限公司总部科技项目资助(52010118000N)。

摘　　要：规模化新能源接入使得电网惯性降低,进而给系统频率和电压安全稳定带来更大的挑战。为了解决上述问题,提出了一种计及频率的基于广义半不变量法的电网概率潮流分析方法。首先构建了计及频率的电力系统潮流模型,并通过规则藤Copula模型拟合出新能源出力的概率分布。其次,针对计及频率的潮流模型输出变量的不确定性,提出了基于半不变量法的概率潮流计算方法,从而定量得到状态变量的概率密度函数。由于规模化新能源接入导致常规半不变量法线性化误差增大,进而提出广义半不变量法来克服这一难题。最后,采用最大熵法拟合状态变量的概率分布曲线,并通过某地区实际电网算例验证了所提方法的准确性和实用性。Large-scale new energy access dilutes the inertia of the power grid,which brings greater challenges to the system frequency and voltage security and stability.In order to solve the above problems,this paper proposes a probabilistic power flow analysis method based on generalized cumulant method,which includes frequency.Firstly,a power flow model with frequency is constructed and the probability distribution of new energy output is fitted by Copula model.Secondly,aiming at the uncertainty of the output variables of the power flow model with frequency,a probabilistic power flow calculation method based on cumulant method is proposed,so as to obtain the probability density function of the state variables quantitatively.Due to the large-scale new energy access,the linearization error of the conventional cumulant method increases,and the generalized cumulant method is proposed to overcome this problem.Finally,the maximum entropy method is used to fit the probability distribution curve of state variables,and the accuracy and practicability of the proposed method are verified by an example of a real power grid in a certain area.

关 键 词：规模化新能源 一次调频 广义半不变量 规则藤Copula模型 最大熵法 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]