煤矿特别重大事故灰色预测与分析  

Grey Prediction and Analysis of Extraordinarily Serious Accidents in Coal Mine

作　　者：兰泽全[1] 傅本福 田冬梅[1] 宋富美[1] LAN Ze-quan;FU Ben-fu;TIAN Dong-mei;SONG Fu-mei(College of Safety Engineering,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Sanhe 065201,China;Sichuan Guang′an Mine Rescue Team,Huaying 638600,China)

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院安全工程学院,河北三河065201 [2]四川省广安市矿山救护大队,四川华蓥638600

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2020年第7期81-83,共3页Coal Technology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助(3142015105);国家青年科学基金项目资助(51704118)。

摘　　要：为掌握我国煤矿安全生产水平变化趋势,应用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型,建立了煤矿特别重大事故灰色预测模型,经对全国煤炭行业2000年-2016年特别重大事故起数的预测值与实际数据的对比分析,反映预测精度的2个指标"后验差比值"和"小误差概率"均属于"好"等级,验证了该方法的可行性和模型的可靠性。预测结果表明,2020年后煤矿特大事故起数下降幅度变缓,2030年后趋于平稳。预测结果可为安全规划目标的确定和对策措施的制定提供重要参考和指导,有利于促进全国煤矿安全生产形势的根本好转。In order to grasp the changing trend of coal mine safety production level in our country, the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory is applied to establish the grey prediction model of coal mine extraordinarily serious accidents. By comparing the predicted and actual data of the incidents of extraordinarily serious accidents in the national coal industry from 2000 to 2016, the "posterior difference ratio" and "small error probability" of the two indicators reflecting the prediction accuracy all belongs to the "good" grade, which verified the feasibility of the method and the reliability of the model. The prediction results indicate that the decline of the number of extraordinarily serious accidents in coal mines slows down after 2020, and tends to be stable after 2030. The prediction results can provide important reference and guidance for the determination of safety planning objectives and the formulation of countermeasures, and help to promote the fundamental improvement of the national coal mine safety production situation.

关 键 词：灰色理论 煤矿事故 事故统计 灰色预测 安全规划目标 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]