中美贸易摩擦对中国经济影响的系统分析  

Systematic Analysis for the Impacts of U.S.-China Trade Friction on China’s Economy

作　　者：鲍勤[1,2,3] 苏丹华 汪寿阳 Bao Qin;Su Danhua;Wang Shouyang(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100190 [3]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2020年第7期3-16,共14页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急项目(71642006);国家社科基金重大项目(19ZDA062)。

摘　　要：中美贸易摩擦通过关税税率调整,直接影响中国的对外贸易,并间接影响中国的整体经济系统。本文应用定性定量综合集成的系统科学方法研究中美贸易摩擦对中国经济的影响,首先定性分析中美贸易摩擦的传导机制与关键参数,进而构建中国经济42部门可计算一般均衡模型,设计中美贸易摩擦基准情景和升级情景两种情形,定量测算不同情景下中美贸易摩擦对中国经济系统的全面影响,并利用综合集成方法论中反复对比、逐次逼近的方法,通过调整模型的5类关键参数,在系统科学视角下研究中美贸易摩擦对中国经济影响的传导程度。结果表明:中美贸易摩擦对中国宏观经济的负向冲击总体可控,但对中国进出口贸易特别是与高端制造业密切相关的行业出口有明显的负向冲击。美国提高关税税率将加剧负向冲击。资本-劳动替代弹性和进出口价格弹性的减小分别有利于化解对宏观经济和对外贸易的负向冲击,人民币汇率自由浮动能够有效促进外部平衡并降低负向冲击。本文为中美贸易摩擦的应对策略提供政策建议。The U.S.-China trade friction with upgrading tariff will directly influence China’s international trade and indirectly influence the whole economic system.In this paper,the methodology of Meta-synthesis in systems science is applied to study the impacts of U.S.-China trade friction on China’s economy.Based on the qualitative analysis of the transmission mechanism and the core parameters,a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of China is built to study the quantitative impacts of U.S.-China trade friction on Chi-na’s economy.Two scenarios for the U.S.-China trade friction are designed and five scenarios for the China’s economic system are as-sumed.In the view of systems science,by applying the properties of repeated comparison and successive approximation of Meta-synthe-sis,the core parameters are adjusted to study the impacts of U.S.-China trade friction.The results indicate that the additional tariff im-posed by the U.S.will have minor effects on China’s macro economy;however,China’s international trade will be negatively shocked with exports of high-end manufacturing industries significantly hurt.Imposing higher tariff by the U.S.on China’s exports will further in-crease the negative shocks.Reducing capital-labor substitution elasticity or price elasticity of import and export will alleviate the negative impacts on China’s economy.The managed floating regime on RMB exchange rate can help achieve international balance and reduce the negative shock.This paper provides policy suggestions to coping with U.S.-China trade friction.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 定性定量综合集成 可计算一般均衡模型 经济系统 系统科学 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济] F124