TEI@I预测的有效性——来自持续五年公开预报珠三角港口运输需求项目的证据  

The Effectiveness of TEI@I Forecasting:Evidence from a Five-year Project-based Public Prediction for Pearl River Delta Port Logistics

作　　者：田歆 王皓晴[1,2,3] 朱佳仪 鄂尔江 Tian Xin;Wang Haoqing;Zhu Jiayi;E Erjiang(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Department of Industrial Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大数据挖掘与知识管理重点实验室,北京100190 [4]清华大学工业工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《管理评论》2020年第7期76-88,共13页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(71390331);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71932002);中国科学院大学优秀青年教师科研能力提升项目(Y8540XX162)。

摘　　要：突破传统采用历史数据训练来评估预测方法效度的局限,提出了一种基于真实情景中公开预报数据来评估预测有效性的框架。通过回顾分析一项长达五年公开发布的珠三角港口集装箱需求月度预报数据,检验了TEI@I预测方法论的有效性。实证结果表明,TEI@I预测方法论具有非常优良的预测精度和稳定性,预测效度随着预测时长的增加有所降低。同时论证了采用合理的预测方法,能够有效估计系统未来发展趋势。Existing literatures that assess the performance of forecasting methods typically based on historical data are partially subjective.We propose a brand new framework for evaluating and tracking the effectiveness of forecasting methods with data set from pre-dicting project under real scenarios.This paper empirically examines the effectiveness of TEI@I methodology using public project-based data for Pearl River Delta Port logistics during the period from 2009 to 2013.Our analyses show that TEI@I model has both excellent prediction accuracy and robustness,which decreases with the increase of prediction duration.This paper also demonstrates that future de-velopment tendency of the complex system can be effectively predicted.

关 键 词：TEI@I方法论 预测 港口物流 集装箱吞吐量 自适应性 

分 类 号：U691.71[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]