金融危机救助政策效果仿真模拟研究  

Research on Financial Crisis Relief Policy Based on System Engineering Method

作　　者：佟欣 庞嘉琦 董志 Tong Xin;Pang Jiaqi;Dong Zhi(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;China Electric Power Finance Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100069)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学创新创业学院,北京100190 [3]中国电力财务有限公司,北京100069

出　　处：《管理评论》2020年第7期150-165,共16页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71532013)。

摘　　要：贸易全球化导致国家之间经济依赖性增强,各个经济体构成相互影响的全球经济系统,系统内部存在多条危机传导途径,直接或者间接地影响到系统内部的其他经济主体,此时研究危机救助政策是非常有意义的。为进一步了解在金融危机背景下,各个经济体实施各项救助政策的效用,本文利用系统动力学方法,建立了单个经济体金融危机救助的系统动力学模型以及在美联储货币互换协议背景下美、日、欧、中(含港澳台)四个经济体的金融危机国际协调救助的系统动力学模型。通过单个经济体救助的系统动力学模型检验传统货币政策和非传统货币政策长期救助效果的有效性,通过国际协调救助的系统动力学模型来检验货币互换协议对于四大经济体的长期救助效果。The globalization of trade leads to an increase in economic dependence among countries.All economies constitute an interac-tive global economic system.Many internal channels of crisis transmission directly or indirectly affect economies within the same system.It is therefore very meaningful to study the crisis relief policy(CRF).In order to further understand the effectiveness of the economies’various CRFs under the background of the financial crisis,the system engineering model is adopted to establish a system dynamics model for financial crisis relief in a single economy,and international coordination and rescue of financial crisis in the US,Japan,Europe and China under the background of the Fed currency swap agreement.The effectiveness of the long-term rescue effect of traditional monetary policy and non-traditional monetary policy is evaluated by the system dynamics model of single economy rescue,and the long-term rescue effect of currency swap agreement on the four major economies is evaluated by the system dynamics model of international coordination rescue.

关 键 词：金融危机 系统动力学 协调救助 货币互换协议 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学] F224