环境政策对空气污染控制与地区经济的影响——基于命令控制型工具的实证  

Impact of Environmental Policy on Air Pollution Control and Regional Economy——Based on Command Control Tools

作　　者：李小胜[1] 束云霞 LI Xiao-sheng;SHU Yun-xia(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2020年第4期691-704,共14页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71873001,71934001);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1808085MG226);安徽省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(AHSKZ2018D13);安徽高校人文社会科学重点研究项目(SK2018A0439);安徽财经大学研究生案例教学建设项目(CXJHALZDI1806);国家统计局一般项目(2017LY38)的资助。

摘　　要：为考察命令控制型工具—即为召开大型的会议,而实施的短期环境政策,对大气污染控制的有效性和对经济增长的影响。首先,选取"G20"峰会为研究对象构造准自然实验,利用双重差分法,分析2015年1月1日至2017年9月30日38个地区的日度空气质量指数和六项单项污染物浓度,探究G20期间的环境政策对G20会议后期的空气质量影响并进行反事实检验;其次,利用26个地区2014年第1季度到2018年第1季度共17个时间节点的数据,运用合成控制法研究"G20"期间的环境政策对杭州经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:(1)政府为了在某一地点某一时期达到较高空气质量的治理手段在一段时间内确实能改善空气质量,但是从长期来看存在着边际效率递减的规律,距离政策冲击的时间点越远,其政策效果越小且越不具有有效性。(2)从会议型命令控制环境政策对经济增长的影响来看,没有证据表明其对经济增长存在负向影响。This paper investigated the effect of command control tool,short-term environmental policies for large meetings on the effectiveness of air pollution and economic growth.Firstly,we took the G20 summit as the research object to construct quasi natural experiments.We analyzed daily Air Quality Indices and six individual pollutant concentrations in 38 regions from 1/1/2015 to 30/9/2017 using the difference and difference method.We explored the impact of environmental regulation on air quality in the late G20 summit and conducted counterfactual testing.Secondly,using the data of 26 cities at 17 time points from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2018,we studied the impact of environmental policies during the G20 period on the economic growth of Hangzhou by using the synthetic control methods.The results show that:1)The government’s environmental policy can really improve air quality in the short run.But in the long run,there is a law of diminishing marginal efficiency.The farther away from the time of policy shock,the smaller the validity of its policy effect.2)From the impact of the environmental policy of command control on economic growth,there is no evidence that it has a negative impact on economic growth.

关 键 词：环境政策 污染控制 双重差分法 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]