全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势预测  

Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide

作　　者：魏凤英 王金杰[3] 徐铣明[4] 高建召 王博灵[5] 马驰宇 彭志行 靳祯 黄森忠[1,8] Wei Fengying;Wang Jinjie;Xu Xianming;Gao Jianzhao;Wang Boling;Ma Chiyu;Peng Zhihang;Jin Zhen;Huang Sen-Zhong(Institute of Public Health,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;College of Mathematics and Computer Science,Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,Fujian,China;Nankai Institute of Economics,Binhai Development Institute,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of Statistics and Data Science,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China;Complex Systems Research Center,Key Discipline of Computer Science and Technology of“Double-First-Class”Project of Shanxi Province,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China;School of Statistics and Data Science,ZhiYing Research Center for Health Data,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学公共卫生与健康研究院,天津300071 [2]福州大学数学与计算机科学学院,运筹学与控制论福建省高校重点实验室,福建福州350116 [3]南开大学滨海开发研究院,天津300071 [4]南开大学统计与数据科学学院,天津300071 [5]南开大学数学科学学院,天津300071 [6]南京医科大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系,江苏南京211166 [7]山西大学复杂系统所,疾病防控的数学技术与大数据分析山西省重点实验室,山西太原030006 [8]南开大学统计与数据科学学院,智英健康数据研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《疾病监测》2020年第6期467-472,共6页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：南开大学新型冠状病毒应急专项(No.63201104);国家自然科学基金(No.61873154,No.81673275);国家科技重大专项(No.2017ZX10201101,No.2018ZX10715002);福建省科技厅专项课题(No.2020Y0005)。

摘　　要：目的对全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的走向进行科学预测。方法基于SEIR(易感者-潜伏者-传染者-恢复者)模型的建模思路,建立积分型普适SEIR模型刻画新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情在易感人群中的传播机制,结合新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的平均潜伏期、平均传染期、非典型患者占比等参数,利用构建的EpiSIX程序,模拟全球主要疫情国家新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的总体态势。结果在理想状态下,全球范围内的疫情将不迟于9月底结束,全球确诊总规模在700万例左右(现确诊总数为540万例);其中,美国将达到250万例(现确诊总数是167万例)。结论本研究提出如下警告:现在预测的是首波疫情的结果,要警惕出现二次暴发的可能。Objective We give projections of the COVID-19 epidemic course worldwide.Methods Based on a generic SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed)model which incorporates the main epidemiological parameters and control efficacy into it,we construct thereby the webapp EpiSIX and use it to forecast the possible tendency of the epidemic course of COVID-19.Results Ideally,the epidemic course worldwide would be stopped by the end of September 2020,with outcomes of 7.0 million diagnosed cases worldwide and 2.5 million diagnosed cases in the USA(currently 5.4 million worldwide and 1.67 million in USA).Conclusion We make a Warning:Predicted only for the first wave.Be careful with the emerging of second wave.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情 SEIR模型 峰值 停时 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]