成都市龙泉驿区近37a气候变化特征研究  

Research on the Characteristics of Climate Change in Longquanyi District of Chengdu City in Recent 37 Years

作　　者：霍雅姝 肖天贵[1] 毛世杰 高楷祥 张媛 HUO Yashu;XIAO Tiangui;MAO Shijie;GAO Kaixiang;ZHANG Yuan(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225 China;Chengdu Longquanyi Meteorological Bureau,Chengdu 610100 China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]成都市龙泉驿气象局,四川成都610100

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2020年第3期313-322,共10页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2015BAC03B05);四川省科学计划资助项目(2019YJ0360);成都市龙泉驿区科技项目(2018H137)。

摘　　要：针对研究成都市龙泉驿区的气候变化特征,以龙泉驿区地面气象站观测数据为基础,选用气温和降水2个主要气象要素指标,采用Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验和线性倾向估计等方法,对1980-2016年龙泉驿区气候变化特征进行研究.结果 表明:(1)龙泉驿区呈现雨热同期的气候特征.(2)年平均气温主要呈增长趋势,在1986年后有明显的降温趋势,高温年份为2006年、2007年、2013年、2014年、2015年;低温年份为1984年、1989年、1996年、1988年、1992年.从1997-2016年的龙泉驿区平均气温基本都高于平均值,而在1997年前的平均气温都普遍低于平均值.(3)年平均气温具有准5 a的显著主周期且较稳定,此外,还具有准9a和17~18a的次周期.(4)龙泉驿区年降水量有明显的减少趋势,且在1996-1998年发生突变,减少趋势显著,有准3a主周期和准10 a、准22 a的次周期,年和各季降水量的准周期变化在所研究的时域中分布较均匀,周期震荡显著.In order to study the characteristics of climate change in Longquanyi District of Chengdu City,this article uses the observation data of ground weather stations in Longquanyi District as the basis,selects two main meteorological factors as temperature and precipitation,uses Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test and linear tendency estimation Methods To study the climate change characteristics of Longquanyi District from 1980 to 2016.The results show that:(1)Longquanyi District presents the climatic characteristics of the same period of rain and heat.(2)The annual average temperature is mainly increasing,and there is a.clear coling trend after 1986.The high-temperature years are 2006,2007,2013,2014,and 2015;the low-temperature years are 1984,1989,and 1996,1988,1992.The average temperature in Longquanyi District from 1997 to 2016 was basically higher than the average,while the average temperature before 1997 was generally lower than the average.(3)The annual average temperature has a significant primary cycle of quasi 5 years and is relatively stable.In addition,it also has quasi 9 years and secondary cycles of 17-18 years.(4)The annual precipitation in Longquanyi District has a clear decreasing trend,and it has abrupt changes from 1996 to 1998.The decreasing trend is significant.There is a quasi 3-year main cycle and a quasi 10-year,quasi-22-year subcycle.The quasi-periodic variation of the quantity is more evenly distributed in the studied time domain,and the periodic oscillation is significant.

关 键 词：大气科学 气候变化 龙泉驿区 线性倾向估计 Mann-Kendal检验 小波变换 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]