中国冬季气温变化及对太平洋海温的响应  

Change of Winter Temperature in China and its Response to SST in the Pacific Ocean

作　　者：李欢欢 巩远发[1] LI Huanhuan;GONG Yuanfa(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2020年第3期323-329,共7页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41775079)。

摘　　要：为探讨前期(春夏秋)太平洋海温对中国冬季气温在年际和年代际时间尺度上的可能影响.利用EOF分析等方法,对1951-2017年太平洋月平均海温和中国160个测站的冬季月平均气温进行分析.结果 发现:EOF分析的第一模态表现出明显的年代际变化,1985年后除云南、青藏高原和华南沿海外,全国冬季气温偏高;第二模态呈现的是从西南到东北“-+-”的以准5 a为周期的年际变化;第三模态反映的是从西南向东北呈现“-+-”分布的年代际变化.前期春、夏、秋季西太平洋(0°N^0°N.125°E^150°E)和东太平洋(7°N^14°N,126°W^150°W)海温能较好预测中国冬季气温,西太平洋春、夏、秋季海温与中国冬季气温的相关系数(0.77、0.80和0.73)比东太平洋(0.35、0.48、0.53)大,说明西太平洋海温对中国冬季气温的影响更为重要.In order to explore the possible effects of the Pacific Ocean temperature in the early period(spring,summer and autumn)on the interannual and interdecadal time scales of winter temperatures in China.This paper uses EOF analysis and other methods to analyze the average monthly sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean and the monthly average temperature in winter at 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2017.It found that the first mode of EOF analysis shows obvious interdecadal changes.After 1985,except for Yunnan,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and South China Coast,the China winter temperature is high;the second mode presents the interannual variation of the quasi-5-year cycle of"-+-"from southwest to northeast;the third mode reflects the interdecadal variation of the"-+-"distribution from the southwest to the northeast.In the early spring,summer and autumn,the western Pacific(0°N-20°N,125°E-150°E)and the eastern Pacific(7°N-14°N,126°W-150°W)temperature can better predict winter temperature in China,the correlation coefficient between winter temperature in China and sea temperature in spring,summer and autumn in the western Pacific(0.77,0.80 and 0.73)is larger than that in the eastern Pacific(0.35,0.48,0.53).It shows that the impact of the western Pacific sea temperature on winter temperature in China is more important.

关 键 词：气象学 气候变化 冬季气温 时空分布特征 太平洋海温 相关 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]