基于方差分解的堆芯下封头熔池模型敏感性分析  

Sensitivity Analysis of Core Lower Head Molten Pool Model Based on Variance Decomposition

作　　者：李治刚 安萍[1,2] 明平洲 潘俊杰[1,2] 芦韡 余红星[1,2] LI Zhigang;AN Ping;MING Pingzhou;PAN Junjie;LU Wei;YU Hongxing(Nuclear Power Institute of China,Chengdu 610041,China;Science and Technology on Reactor System Design Technology Laboratory,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]中国核动力研究设计院,四川成都610041 [2]核反应堆系统设计技术重点实验室,四川成都610041

出　　处：《原子能科学技术》2020年第8期1409-1417,共9页Atomic Energy Science and Technology

摘　　要：下封头熔池模型是熔融物堆内滞留(IVR)有效性评价的重要模型,具有关系式复杂、输入参数多且具有较大不确定性的特点,传统的局部敏感性分析方法在进行复杂模型敏感性分析时具有计算量大、效率低的缺点。本文基于方差分解的全局敏感性分析方法,采用中国核动力研究设计院自主研发的敏感性分析工具SALib和熔融物堆内滞留软件CISER,针对下封头壁面热流密度比等5个关键结果参数开展了输入参数敏感性分析,得到了输入参数对关键结果的敏感性系数及影响趋势,可为下封头熔池模型和严重事故策略的优化提供参考。The lower head molten pool model is an important model for the in-vessel retention(IVR)effectiveness evaluation.It has the characteristics of complex relationship,many input parameters and large uncertainty.The traditional local sensitivity analysis method has the disadvantages of large amount of calculation and low efficiency when performing sensitivity analysis of complex models.In the paper,based on variance decomposition of the global sensitivity analysis method,the sensitivity analysis library(SALib)and IVR analysis code CISER developed by Nuclear Power Institute of China were adopted to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters for five key parameters,such as the lower head wall heat flux ratio.The sensitivity coefficient and influence tread of input parameters on key results were obtained,which provides a reference for the optimization of the lower head molten pool model and severe accident mitigation strategies.

关 键 词：方差分解 熔池模型 全局敏感性分析 SALib 

分 类 号：TL48[核科学技术—核技术及应用]