中国对“一带一路”国家出口关系生存率及其影响因素研究--基于产品异质性视角  

Research on China's Export Relations Survival Rate of Countries of the Belt and Road Ini⁃tiative and Its Influencing Factors:Based on Product Heterogeneity

作　　者：万红先[1] 唐小宇 WAN Hong-xian;TANG Xiao-yu(Anhui University of Finance and Economics Bengbu 233000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《河北地质大学学报》2020年第3期115-122,共8页Journal of Hebei Geo University

基　　金：安徽省级质量工程“省级名师工作室”(2015msgzs137);安徽省高校人文社科研究重点项目(SK2016A0019)。

摘　　要：基于CEPII-BACI数据库1995—2017年HS6分位出口数据,文章采用生存分析法估计了中国对"一带一路"国家的产品出口关系生存率并分析其影响因素。研究发现:出口关系生存率较低且前五年下降较快,之后趋于平缓。进一步分产品加工程度、技术水平、差异化程度、细分多样性、初始贸易额及单位价值估计,发现出口关系生存率因产品异质性存在差异。鉴于以往产品单位价值对出口关系生存率的影响结果不明确,进一步依产品加工程度、技术水平和差异化程度分单位价值估计,结果发现:在低、中、高技术制成品以及差异化产品中高单位价值产品的出口关系生存率反而更低。Based on the export data of HS6 in 1995-2017 years in the CEPII⁃BACI database,the survival analysis method was used to estimate the survival rate of China's export relations to the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative and to analyze its influencing factors.It is found that the survival rate of export relationship is relatively low and the first five years decline rapidly,and then tend to be flat.Further divided into product processing degree,technology level,differentiation degree,subdivision diversity,initial trade volume and unit value estimation,we found that there are differences between the survival rate of export relations due to product het⁃erogeneity.In view of the uncertainty of the effect of the unit value of products on the survival rate of export relations in the past,we further estimate it by the unit value according to the degree of product processing,technology level and differentiation.The results show that the survival rate of export relations of high unit value products in low,medium and high⁃tech manufactured products and differentiated products is lower.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 出口关系生存率 生存分析法 产品异质性 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]