Financial Factors,Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China  

作　　者：Hongjin Li Naifang Su 

机构地区：[1]Research Bureau,People's Bank of China,China

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2020年第4期76-100,共25页中国与世界经济（英文版）

摘　　要：China's financial market has undergone significant changes since financial deleveraging commenced and regulatory supervision was tightened in 2017.Intensifying China-US trade tensions have further increased the uncertainties of external environments.In this article,we use a Bayesian approach instead of the standard maximum likelihood estimation in the Laubach-Williams model to estimate the natural interest rate by considering financial factors and open conditions,and analyze the relationships among the natural interest rate,economic activities and monetary policies.We find that technological and demographic factors are the main drivers of natural interest rates,while financial factors and open conditions also play important roles.In particular,shocks in the financial markets and the external economic environment in recent years are important reasons for the decline of China's natural interest rate.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen research on the estimation of the natural interest rate to ensure China's transformation into more price-based monetary policy and high-quality development.

关 键 词：BAYESIAN estimation FINANCIAL FACTORS natural INTEREST rate open conditions STATE-SPACE model 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]