The Prospect of Korean Nuclear Issue:Several Focal Points  

有关朝核前景的若干焦点问题评析

作　　者：Lin Limin Cheng Yake 林利民;程亚克(the University of International Relations whose research focuses on geopolitics,the China-US relationship and the Korean Peninsula issue;the DPRK nuclear issue and Six-Party Talks)

机构地区：[1]the University of International Relations whose research focuses on geopolitics,the China-US relationship and the Korean Peninsula issue [2]the DPRK nuclear issue and Six-Party Talks

出　　处：《Contemporary International Relations》2020年第3期37-55,共19页现代国际关系（英文版）

基　　金：the phased result of a research project International Security Governance and New Type of International Relations (Project No. 3262016T01),sponsored by the University of International Relations

摘　　要：For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capability completely?Will the US resolve the issue with force?Can the DPRK collapse under maximum pressure?On the other hand,what could happen if Six-Party Talks resumed and the international community would“acquiesce”in a nuclear DPRK?Arguing the slippery slope that others in Northeast Asia will become nuclear is delusional:Japan and the ROK are unlikely to join the nuclear arms race.The most plausible next step is that the DPRK holds on to its hard-won nuclear capability,the international community acquiesces,and Six-Party Talks resume.It is an opportunity for China to play a leading role in resolving the nuclear issue and advancing Northeast Asian diplomacy.

关 键 词：Korean peninsula nuclear issue collapse theory acquiescence theory maximum pressure Six-Party Talks 

分 类 号：D815.2[政治法律—国际关系]