日本与中美战略竞争——贸易战、科技战及印太战略  

Japan and the U.S.-China Strategic Competition:Trade War,Technology War,and the Indo-Pacific Strategy

作　　者：归泳涛[1] Gui Yongtao

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871

出　　处：《国际论坛》2020年第3期3-18,155,共17页International Forum

摘　　要：在中美战略竞争加剧的背景下,日本力图在中国与美国之间、在经济与安全之间求得平衡。在贸易战上,日本一面与美国周旋,一面加速与其他贸易伙伴的一体化进程,表现出相当大的自主性。在科技战上,尽管日本政府与美国步调一致,但日本国内围绕安全优先还是经济优先的问题存在争论。日本特别担心中美"脱钩"会导致中国经济增速进一步放缓和全球供应链断裂,危及日本经济增长的根本。在印太战略上,日本表面上与美国保持协调,实际上却试图与美国的政策划清界限,不愿意过分突出针对中国的地缘政治竞争,而是希望日本的"印太构想"能与中国的"一带一路"倡议和谐共处。日本与美国的根本分歧在于,是否把与中国的关系视为"零和"竞争。尽管日本与中国之间也存在经济和安全上的分歧,但日本既不可能与巨大的中国市场"脱钩",也不愿意陷入与中国的军事对抗,因而采取了竞争与合作并重的对华政策。日本与美国在对华政策上的分歧可能成为常态,如果中美竞争愈演愈烈,日本将面临更艰难的抉择。As the U.S.-China strategic competition intensifies,Tokyo seeks to strike a balance between its relations with Washington and Beijing,and between its economic and security interests.In responding to the trade war,Japan enjoys considerable autonomy as it has been able to accelerate economic integration with other trading partners while dealing with the United States in a roundabout way.With respect to the technology war,while Tokyo acts in concert with Washington,there are debates in Japan on whether to prioritize security or the economy.Japan is particularly worried about a U.S.-China"decoupling"that could slow down Chinese economic growth,break the global supply chain,thereby threatening the foundation of Japan’s economic growth.Concerning the Indo-Pacific strategy,although Tokyo seems to be coordinating with Washington,it in fact wants to distance itself the U.S.policy and downplay geopolitical competition with Beijing.Japan hopes that its Indo-Pacific Vision will coexist peacefully with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.The fundamental difference between the policies of Japan and the United States lies in their view on whether the relationship with China should be perceived as a zero-sum game.Notwithstanding its disagreements with China on some economic and security issues,Japan is unlikely to forsake the massive Chinese market,nor is it willing to engage in a military confrontation with China.Japan’s China policy,therefore,combines competition and cooperation.The discord between Japan and the United States over their China policy might become a frequent fact of life.If the U.S.-China rivalry grows,Japan will face even harder choices.

关 键 词：中美日关系 日本外交 贸易战 科技战 印太战略 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]