考虑相关因子的基于可信性理论的厂网协调规划  

COORDINATED DESIGN OF PLANT NETWORK BASED ON CREDIBILITY THEORY CONSIDERING RELEVANT FACTORS

作　　者：钟嘉庆[1] 贺勇 陈冰 靳国臣 张晓辉[1] Zhong Jiaqing;He Yong;Chen Bing;Jin Guochen;Zhang Xiaohui(Key Lab of Power Electronics for Energy Conservation and Motor Drive of Hebei Prorince,Yanshan Uniersity,Qinhuangdao 066004,China;Lixin County Power Supply Company,Anhui Electric Power Company of State Grid,Lixin 236802,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学河北省电力电子节能与传动控制重点实验室,秦皇岛066004 [2]国网安徽省电力公司利辛县供电公司,利辛236802

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2020年第6期16-24,共9页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(6187023566);河北省高等学校科学技术研究重点项目(ZD2016049)。

摘　　要：当今,清洁能源在整个发电环节中越来越占有举足轻重的地位,如何对涉及清洁能源的电厂和电网进行协调规划成为关键。部分专家提出协调因子补偿成本,通过价格因素指导厂网的协调规划,该文在此基础上提出相关因子,即将所有机组供电系数的标准差作为相关因子,更加促进厂网规划的协调性。基于可信性理论,对负荷预测与风电出力的进行不确定性分析,根据模糊集合理论建立模糊机会约束,并通过对模糊机会约束条件的清晰化处理,最终利用细菌群体趋药性算法对规划模型求解。通过对3种规划方案的对比,得出所提方案更具有经济性与合理性。In today’s society,clean energy plays a more and more important role in the whole power generation process.How to coordinate the planning of power plants and power grids involving clean energy becomes the key.Some experts put forward the coordination factor compensation cost programme,so as to guide the coordinated planning of plant network through price factors.Based on this,a relevant factor method is put forward in this paper,in which the standard deviation of the power supply coefficient of all units is considered as the correlation factors.The method further promotes the coordination of the plant network planning.Based on the credibility theory,this paper analyzes the uncertainty of load forecasting and wind power output,and establishes the fuzzy chance constraints according to the fuzzy set theory.Finally,using the bacterial colony chemotaxis algorithm solves the model.Through the comparison of the three planning programs,it is concluded that the proposed program is more economical and reasonable.

关 键 词：成本 不确定性分析 模糊集合理论 厂网协调规划 可信性理论 协调因子补偿成本 相关因子 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]