强降水指数THWC的构建及其在海河流域北上台风中的诊断应用  

Construction of Heavy Rain THWC Index and Its Diagnosis Application to Northward-Moving Typhoon Affecting Haihe River Basin

作　　者：从靖 吴振玲[1] 李德帅[2] 董畅 CONG Jing;WU Zhenling;LI Deshuai;DONG Chang(Tianjin Municipal Meteorological Observatory,Tianjin 300074;Unit 93995 of PLA,Xi’an 710000)

机构地区：[1]天津市气象台,天津300074 [2]中国人民解放军93995部队,西安710000

出　　处：《气象》2020年第7期913-925,共13页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41805058);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-006);天津市气象局科研项目(201905ybxm05)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于强降水发生的物理机制,采用“配料法”综合动力、水汽、不稳定物理诊断参数,构建了综合强降水指数THWC(temperature,helicity and water condensation)。运用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算THWC指数,对2018年第14号台风摩羯北上影响海河流域期间进行诊断分析,结果表明,THWC指数对未来6 h台风偏北侧暴雨区分布及中心量级预报准确。选取2012—2018年影响流域的北上台风个例,进行普适性检验表明:标准化后的ZTHWC指数更具有普适性,解决了THWC指数对暴雨中心量级预报可能出现的不稳定性问题;ZTHWC指数与未来6 h的台风中心暴雨落区及中心量级大小均具有较好的对应关系,且北上台风环流越完整,两者的吻合度越高,因此可以将ZTHWC指数作为北上台风暴雨的定量预报指标。Based on the physical mechanism of heavy rain occurrence,a new heavy rain index THWC(temperature,helicity and water condensation)was constructed by using the ingredients based method to diagnose the dynamic,water vapor and unstable conditions signals.The THWC index calculated with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data was used to diagnose the northward-moving Typhoon Yagi(No.14 in 2018)affec-ting Haihe River Basin.The results indicated that the THWC index is accurate for forecasting the northerly rainstorm location of typhoon and the center magnitude in the following 6 hours.Then the universality of THWC index was tested according to the northward-moving typhoons affecting Haihe River Basin du-ring 2012-2018.The results showed that the standardized ZTHWC index is more universal than the THWC index,and it has solved unstable problem of THWC index in forecasting quantitative prediction of the central precipitation magnitude.The ZTHWC index has a good correspondence with the main rainstorm location near typhoon center and the central precipitation magnitude in the following 6 hours.The more integrated the atmospheric circulation of northward-moving typhoon is,the better coincidence between ZTHWC and the typhoon main rainstorm area is.Therefore,the ZTHWC index can be used as a quantitative index for forecasting the main rainstorm of the northward-moving typhoon.

关 键 词：台风 暴雨 配料法 诊断预报 THWC指数 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]