哈萨克斯坦对欧亚经济联盟的参与及限度——结构制约与精英偏好的影响  

Kazakhstan’s Participation in the Eurasian Economic Union and its Limits——Influences of Structural Constraints and Elite Preferences

作　　者：周明[1,2] Zhou Ming

机构地区：[1]兰州大学中亚研究所 [2]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2020年第3期140-173,共34页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“‘颜色革命’的发生、扩散与应对研究”(项目批准号:19BGJ051);新疆智库项目“中亚安全形势的变化与‘丝绸之路经济带’建设”(项目编号:XJZK2018YW008)的阶段性成果;兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费(项目编号:2019jbkyjd005、2020jbkyjc001、2020jbkyjd003)的资助。

摘　　要：欧亚经济联盟是俄罗斯整合后苏联空间的最新尝试,而成员国对组织的认同和参与攸关其成败。因此,在分析欧亚经济联盟的发展轨迹及其发展趋势时,中小成员国对该组织的参与同样值得关注。哈萨克斯坦是欧亚经济联盟中除俄罗斯之外最具实力的国家,其对联盟的参与至关重要。哈萨克斯坦对欧亚经济联盟的认知和参与,从最初的积极拥抱变为谨慎支持。哈的立场变化同时受到结构制约与精英偏好的影响。俄罗斯在地区一体化机制中的主导地位、哈国内族群结构、哈地理位置等结构性因素,决定了哈萨克斯坦需要参与欧亚经济联盟。然而,乌克兰危机在一定程度上削弱了俄在后苏联空间内的结构性权力,这增加了哈萨克斯坦的行动自由。与此同时,俄罗斯在乌克兰危机后为维系自身的国际和地区地位,加强了对后苏联空间的整合力度。但俄采取的一些做法被哈精英解读为对其国家主权和自主发展道路的威胁,这削弱了哈精英对欧亚经济联盟的认同度和参与度。The Eurasian Economic Union is Russia’s latest attempt to integrate the post-Soviet space,whose success largely depends on its member states’recognition and participation.Therefore,when analyzing the development trajectory and future trend of the Eurasian Economic Union,it is worth paying attention to the participation of small and medium-sized members.Kazakhstan is the most powerful member of the Eurasian Economic Union except Russia,and its participation is crucial for the organization.However,Kazakhstan’s perceptions and participation have changed in a subtle way,from initially positive welcoming to later cautious supporting.The paper argues this change is affected by structural constraints and elites’preferences.Russia’s dominant position in the EEU,the relative stability of Kazakh’s ethnic group structure,Kazakhstan’s geographical location and other structural factors make it imperative for Kazakhstan to participate in the EEU.However,the Ukrainian crisis has,to some extent,weakened Russia’s structural power in the post-Soviet space and increased Kazakhstan’s freedom of action.Meanwhile,in order to maintain its international and regional status after the crisis,Russia has been seeking to speed up the integration in the post-Soviet space.Nevertheless,some actions taken by Russia were interpreted by Kazakh elites as a threat to their sovereignty and independent development path,which further weakened Kazakh elites’recognition and participation in the Eurasian Economic Union.

关 键 词：欧亚经济联盟 结构制约 精英偏好 哈萨克斯坦外交 

分 类 号：D751[政治法律—政治学]