中国能源开采业碳排放脱钩效应情景模拟  

Scenario simulation of carbon decoupling effect of China’s energy mining industry

作　　者：揭俐[1,3] 王忠 余瑞祥[1] JIE Li;WANG Zhong;YU Rui-xiang(School of Management and Economics,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan Hubei 430074,China;School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan Hubei 430074,China;School of Arts and Communication,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan Hubei 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)艺术与传媒学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2020年第7期47-56,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国资源富集区矿业权重置的风险传导与规制优化研究”(批准号:13CGL116);中国地质大学(武汉)繁荣哲学社会科学项目。

摘　　要：厘清能源开采中的碳脱钩问题,对于推动能源绿色开采和能源富集区高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于广义迪氏指数分解模型和系统动力学模型,分析了能源开采业碳排放的主要驱动因素及脱钩效应,并通过情景模拟,评估了中国能源开采业碳脱钩的潜力,提出了能源绿色开采的政策建议。研究结果表明:①2009—2017年中国能源开采业碳排放呈现出先增后降趋势,2012年达到拐点5.26亿t后开始下降,2017年达3.65亿t。整体来看,产业规模效应对碳排放增长的贡献最大,能源强度效应也有部分贡献;投资效应、能耗效应、碳强度效应、技术效应与碳排放之间呈正相关关系,是主要的碳减排驱动因素。②基于能源-环境-经济的系统动力模型,能有效解释能源开采与碳脱钩效应之间的传导机理;碳强度效应、技术效应和碳排放因子是影响碳脱钩潜力的主要因素。2006—2017年间,中国能源开采业碳排放与GDP增长之间,除2008、2014—2016年表现为强脱钩,2009、2011年表现为扩张性负脱钩外,其余年份均表现为弱脱钩关系。③预计2020—2030年,中国煤炭、石油和天然气开采业碳排放与GDP增长之间,在基准情景下呈现出弱脱钩效应,在规划情景下自2014—2030年间均呈现出强脱钩效应;然而,碳排放与其能源产出之间,2021—2030年在基准情景下呈现扩张连接效应,在规划情景和对比情景下表现出程度不一的衰退脱钩效应。据此,未来中国能源开采业碳脱钩的政策重点,一方面应注重环境政策、税收政策、技术政策等政策变量间的协同作用,着力调整煤炭和石油天然气开采业的投资强度和产出规模,优化能源进口结构,进一步减少能源生产碳排放强度,提升能源绿色生产水平;另一方面,还应着力能源开采业能源消耗结构和能耗强度的调整,革新采掘技术和设备,以进一步降低碳强度,走高质量发展之路。It is of great significance to clarify the problem of carbon decoupling in energy mining to promote green energy mining and high-quality development of energy-rich areas.Based on the generalized Divisia index method and system dynamics model,this paper analyzes the main driving factors and decoupling effects of carbon emissions in energy mining industry,and evaluates the potential of carbon decoupling in China’s energy mining industry through scenario simulation,and puts forward policy recommendations for green energy mining.The results show that:①Crbon emissions in China’s energy mining industry increased first and then decreased in 2009-2017.After reaching an inflection point of 526 million ton in 2012,the carbon emissions began to drop to 365 million ton in 2017.Overall,the industry scale effect contributes the most to the growth of carbon emissions,and the energy intensity effect also plays a part;the investment effect,energy consumption effect,carbon intensity effect,technology effect and carbon emission are positively correlated,which are the main drivers of carbon emission reduction.②The system dynamic model based on energy-environment-economy can effectively explain the conduction mechanism between energy extraction and carbon decoupling effect.Between carbon emissions in China’s energy mining industry and GDP growth from 2006 to 2017,except for strong decoupling in 2008,2014-2016,and expansionary negative decoupling in 2009&2011,all other years showed weak decoupling.③Between carbon emissions in China’s coal,oil,gas mining industry and GDP growth,it is expected to show a weak decoupling effect from 2020 to 2030 under the baseline scenario and a strong decoupling effect from 2014 to 2030 under the planning scenario;between carbon emissions and their energy output,it is however showed an expansionary connectivity effect under the baseline scenario and a varying degree of recession decoupling effect in the planning and contrast scenarios from 2021 to 2030.Therefore,in the future,the policy foc

关 键 词：能源开采 碳排放 脱钩效应 系统动力 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]