甘肃近50a暴雨洪水极端值分析探讨  

Analysis of Extreme Values of Storms and Floods in Gansu Province over Last 50 Years

作　　者：王双合 马正耀 马金辉[2] WANG Shuanghe;MA Zhengyao;MA Jinhui(Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730000,China;Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2020年第8期11-14,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家国际科技合作项目(2013DFE23030)。

摘　　要：通过甘肃近50 a暴雨洪水与已知世界最大暴雨洪水及其外包线的对比,分析甘肃暴雨洪水极端值的量级特性,探讨甘肃暴雨洪水成因及时空分布,研究暴雨洪水灾害发生的基本规律。结果表明:历时小于1 h的局地暴雨可达到或超过世界最大外包线;流域面积小于30 km2的小面积洪水量级可达到或超过世界最大外包线,大流域洪水量级与世界最大外包线相差较大,造成灾害的可能性较小;暴雨洪水在7月和8月发生的频率均超过70%,“七下八上”是甘肃境内洪水的高发期;从暴雨洪水分布区域看,东南部流域发生的频率大,河西内陆河流域发生的频率相对较小。Based on the comparative analysis of rainstorm flood in Gansu with the world known maximum rainstorm and envelop curve over last 50 years,the reason of rainstorm flood,the spatial and temporal distribution and the features of the extreme value levels in Gansu was discussed.The results show that local rainstorms which lasting less than 1 hour can reach or exceed world envelop curve.And it can reach or exceed world envelop curve when the river basin area of the flood less than 30 km2.The magnitude of the floods in the large watershed greatly differs from that in the world,therefore the possibility of disasters is small.Judging from the rainstorm flood distribution area,the frequency for rainstorm floods in southeast river basin is larger and it is relatively smaller for Hexi inland river basin.

关 键 词：暴雨洪水 极端值 外包线 甘肃 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]