降雨型滑坡失稳概率计算方法  

A discussion on the calculation method of instability probability of landslide due to rainfall

作　　者：向小龙 孙炜锋[2] 谭成轩[2] 侯春堂[2] 任汉锋[3] 刘明军 XIANG Xiaolong;SUN Weifeng;TAN Chengxuan;HOU Chuntang;REN Hanfeng;LIU Mingjun(China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing G&M Engineering Construction Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100016,China;Huadong Engineering(Fujian)Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350003,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [2]中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京100081 [3]北京地矿工程建设有限责任公司,北京100016 [4]华东勘测设计院(福建)有限公司,福建福州350003

出　　处：《地质通报》2020年第7期1115-1120,共6页Geological Bulletin of China

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目《盐津地区地质灾害调查》(编号:12120114035801)。

摘　　要：为了解决滑坡风险评价中的滑坡失稳概率计算问题,利用前人在降雨阈值的研究成果,结合气象学中降雨概率分布理论,以云南省盐津县庙坝滑坡为例进行计算,建立降雨型滑坡失稳概率计算模型。结果表明,盐津县降雨型滑坡的降雨阈值类型为累积降雨量-历时关系阈值,即为单日降雨阈值,降雨阈值为29.7 mm;盐津县在当日降雨量达到或超过阈值水平时可能诱发滑坡,对滑坡影响的滞后天数最大为5天;庙坝滑坡在8月20—25日6天内单日降雨达到或超过29.7 mm的降雨概率为46.49%;庙坝滑坡在8月25日因前5天或当天单日降雨量超过29.7 mm而失稳的概率为0.2853%。In order to solve the landslide risk evaluation of landslide failure instability probability calculation problem,this paper summarizes the research achievements of previous researchers in rainfall threshold and,in combination with the previous research results in a threshold rainfall,uses the theory of statistical to perform coupling analysis of the historical record of the rainfall landslide and rainfall data,so as to create a rainfall landslide failure instability probability calculation model,with Miaoba landslide in Yanjin County of Yunnan Province as an example for demonstration.The results show that the rainfall threshold type of Yanjin County rainfall landslide is cumulative rainfall duration threshold,which means the one-day rainfall threshold,with the rainfall threshold being 29.7 mm;most of rainfall landslide in Yanjin County is caused by the daily rainfall which reaches rainfall threshold within 5 days;the possibility that the rain reaches or exceeds 29.7 mm from August 20th to 25th is 46.49%;the possibility of the failure of Miaoba landslide in August 25th is 0.2853%.

关 键 词：降雨型滑坡 降雨阈值 降雨概率分布 滑坡失稳概率 

分 类 号：P644.22[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] P694[天文地球—地质学]