海外钻探目标综合评价指标体系研究与应用  

Research and application of comprehensive evaluation index system for overseas prospects

作　　者：李志[1] 计智锋[1] 李富恒[1] 杨紫[1] 马洪 王林 Li Zhi;Ji Zhifeng;Li Fuheng;Yang Zi;Ma Hong;Wang Lin(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,100083 [2]中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司

出　　处：《中国石油勘探》2020年第4期11-21,共11页China Petroleum Exploration

基　　金：国家科技重大专项“海外重点探区目标评价与未来领域选区选带研究”(2016ZX05029-005)。

摘　　要：2014年下半年以来,国际油价长期低位徘徊,如何制定不同油价下的勘探部署方案、实现效益勘探是油公司勘探面临的首要问题。在调研国内外钻探目标综合评价方法的基础上,结合中国石油天然气集团有限公司(简称中国石油)海外油气勘探实践,提出一种基于目标的地质风险、经济价值、资源可转换性与战略因素为一体的钻探目标综合评价优选指标体系,对上述4个方面11项指标分别赋予权重开展定量化评价。在建立综合评价指标基础上,提出了意向目标收集、目标初步筛选和目标综合排队三步走的评价流程,实现了不同油价下多目标的排队与部署优化。2016年以来,中国石油海外油气勘探应用该评价指标体系和流程,每年开展两轮全球钻探目标综合排队与部署优化,提出了差异化部署方案,应用效果成效显著,具有一定的推广价值。Since the second half of 2014,the international oil price has been hovering at a low level for a long time.How to make exploration deployment plans under variable oil prices,and to achieve benefi t exploration are the primary issues faced by oil companies.Based on the investigation of the comprehensive evaluation methods of prospects at home and abroad,combined with the practices of overseas oil and gas exploration of CNPC,a comprehensive evaluation and ranking method of prospects has been proposed,which is based on the geological risk,economic value,resource exploitability and strategic factors of the prospects.11 indexes of the 4 aspects mentioned above have been given the weight for quantitative evaluation.Based on the establishment of comprehensive evaluation index,the evaluation procedure with 3 steps is proposed,namely,candidate collection,preliminary screening and comprehensive ranking.The multi-prospect ranking and deployment optimization under different oil prices has been realized.Since 2016,CNPC overseas oil and gas exploration has applied the evaluation index system and procedures to carry out 2 rounds of global prospects comprehensive ranking and deployment optimization every year,and put forward differentiated deployment plans.The application effect is remarkable,showing that the evaluation index system is of strong promotional value.

关 键 词：目标评价 地质风险 经济价值 资源可转换性 决策部署 

分 类 号：TE121[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]