新型冠状病毒肺炎境外输入性病例与全球病例地区分布关联性  

Correlation analysis of regional distribution in COVID-19 imported cases from abroad in China

作　　者：陈纯[1] 康燕[1] 蔡文锋[1] 祁娟 吴德平[1] 刘远[1] 梁伯衡[1] CHEN Chun;KANG Yan;CAI Wen-feng;QI Juan;WU De-ping;LIU Yuan;LIANG Bo-heng(Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 510440,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心,广州510440

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2020年第7期840-844,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：广东省医学科研基金(B2020005)。

摘　　要：目的对我国新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)境外输入性病例地区分布和全球病例分布进行关联性分析,为精准防控提供政策依据。方法收集中国COVID-19境外输入性病例和全球其他国家地区病例数据,通过描述性流行病学和Spearman相关分析方法分析境外输入性病例分布及其与全球病例分布的关联性。结果截至4月9日,中国共报告境外输入病例995例,主要分布在上海(20.20%)、广东(17.59%)、北京(17.19%)和黑龙江(8.74%);主要输入国为英国(27.74%)、美国(14.87%)、俄罗斯(12.16%)和西班牙(8.74%)。使用世界卫生组织各成员国(及地区)区域划分进行地区关联性Spearman相关分析,除西太平洋和东南亚区域外,其他4个区域均有统计学意义(均有P<0.05)。结论中国输入病例与输入国本土病例间总体相关;部分卫生体系和资源相对薄弱的国家地区疫情存在低估;中国在输入性疫情防控上,应特别关注卫生体系和资源较差的非洲、东南亚、南美等国家地区,各省可依据输入病例分布情况开展风险评估,制定和实施精准防控和分类管理措施。Objective This study aimed to analyze the relation of regional distributions between coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) imported cases and global cases and help policy making for accurate prevention. Methods Regional data of global cases and imported cases from other countries or districts to China were collected. Descriptive epidemiology and Spearman correlation analysis were used in statistical analysis. Results Up to April 9 th, the number of 995 COVID-19 imported cases from abroad were reported, most in Shanghai(20.20%), Guangdong(17.59%), Beijing(17.19%) and Heilongjiang(8.74%).The imported cases were mainly from the United Kingdom(27.74%), the United States(14.87%), Russia(12.16%), Spain(8.74%), respectively.Spearman correlation analysis were performed between cases in 6 regions of WHO member countries(and regions) and imported cases from these regions,4 regionsincluding the regions of European, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean and African were showed statistical significances(all P<0.05). Conclusions Our study showed an overall correlation between the COVID-19 imported cases to China and the cases in these countries. Epidemic of COVID-19 might be underestimated in some countries and regions with poor health systems and resources. Therefore, we should pay more special attentions to backward countries and regions in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America to reduce the number of imported cases. Riska ssessment of imported epidemic also need to be conducted according to regional distribution in each province to prevent accurately and manage precisely.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 境外输入性病例 关联性分析 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]