东北地区制造业全要素生产率估算与分解:1992-2018  

Estimation and Decomposition of Total Factor Productivity of Manufacturing Industry in Northeast China: 1992-2018

作　　者：李婉红 李娜 王帆 LI Wan-hong;LI Na;WANG Fan

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济论坛》2020年第6期5-15,共11页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目“东北老工业基地制造业结构转型动因、阻滞与突破路径研究”(17BGL204)。

摘　　要：提高制造业全要素生产率是破解东北经济增长困局和实现东北振兴的重要路径。本文采用超越对数随机前沿生产函数,对东北地区1992—2018年制造业及25个行业全要素生产率进行估算,并将其分解为技术效率变化、技术进步以及规模效率,探讨东北制造业全要素生产率的行业差异。通过研究得出三点结论:第一,东北地区制造业全要素生产率增速保持在0.626%-2.864%之间,年平均增速为2.081%,且主要源于技术进步;第二,2003年"东北振兴"政策一定程度上加重了东北地区制造业的资本投入冗余问题,资本要素未能转化为有效产能,同时劳动力要素因供需结构矛盾导致投入相对不足;第三,东北地区技术密集型产业全要素生产率的增长相对较高,传统的轻工业技术效率变化出现负值。同时,国有垄断程度高、竞争性偏低的行业技术进步相对缓慢,部分技术密集型行业和轻工业的规模效率尚未达到最优状态。研究结论从要素投入角度探讨了东北制造业衰退的根源,为制定东北地区制造业结构调整政策提供理论借鉴。Improving the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry is an important way to solve the economic growth dilemma of the Northeast. This paper adopts a Translog-SFA model to measure the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry and 25 sub-sectors in the Northeast from 1992 to 2018, and decomposes it into technological efficiency, technological progress, and scale efficiency. The results show that, firstly, the growth rate of total factor productivity in the manufacturing industry in the Northeast remained between 0.626% and2.864%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.081%, which was mainly driven by technological progress. Secondly, the policy of "Northeast Revitalization" in 2003 has to some extent increased the capital investment redundancy of the manufacturing industry in Northeast China, but the capital elements have not been converted into effective production capacity. At the same time, due to the contradiction between supply and demand structure, the labor elements have relatively insufficient investment. Thirdly, the growth of total factor productivity of capital knowledge intensive industries in Northeast China is relatively high, and the change of traditional light industry technology efficiency is negative. At the same time, the technological progress of industries with high degree of state-owned monopoly and low competitiveness is relatively slow, and the scale efficiency of some capital knowledge intensive industries and light industries has not reached the optimal state. The conclusion of the study explores the reasons of the decline of the manufacturing industry in Northeast from the perspective of factor input, and provides a theoretical reference for formulating policies for the upgrading of manufacturing structure in Northeast China.

关 键 词：制造业 全要素生产率 要素投入 随机前沿生产函数 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F427