基于混合分布的非一致性长江口潮位序列频率计算方法  

Hydrologic Frequency Calculating Methods of Inconsistent Tidal Level Series in Yangtze River Estuary Based on Mixed Distribution

作　　者：张悦 ZHANG Yue(Embankment Sluice Management Station of Chongchuan District in Nantong,Nantong 226006,China)

机构地区：[1]南通市崇川区堤防涵闸管理所,江苏南通226006

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第8期26-28,78,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：针对长期以来全球气候变化和大范围人类活动影响导致的水文序列不满足一致性的问题,选用镇江、江阴、天生港和徐六泾4站作为长江口地区潮位代表站,对各站年极值潮位序列进行跳跃变异分析,采用模拟退火算法进行参数估计,得到基于混合分布的各站年极值潮位概率分布,推求出不同频率对应的设计潮位。基于混合分布对非一致序列进行频率分析,方法简便灵活,避免了序列修正或分解合成等转化步骤,克服了人工适线的不足,通过分布一致性检验,频率计算结果合理可靠。Aiming at the inconsistency of hydrological series caused by global climate change and large-scale human activities for a long time,a total of four stations,which contained Zhenjiang,Jiangyin,Tian Shenggang and Xu Liujing Station,were selected as representative tidal stations of the Yangtze River Estuary to carry out the jump variation analysis and frequency calculation of inconsistent annual extreme tide level series.The simulated annealing algorithm was used to estimate the parameters,and the probability distribution of annual extreme tide levels based on mixed distribution was obtained and passed the consistency test.The designed tide levels corresponding to different frequency was calculated.The frequency analysis of inconsistent tidal level series was carried out directly.The method was simple and flexible,which avoided the transformation steps of inconsistent series,such as modification or decomposition and synthesis,and overcame the shortcomings of artificial fit line.

关 键 词：混合分布 年极值潮位 水文变异 水文计算 模拟退火算法 

分 类 号：P337[天文地球—水文科学]