海洋平台泄漏硫化氢中毒事故后果动态评估  

Dynamic assessment of consequences for poisoning accidents caused by HS release on offshore platforms

作　　者：杨冬冬[1] 陈国明[1] 朱渊[1] 师吉浩 YANG Dongdong;CHEN Guoming;ZHU Yuan;SHI Jihao(Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《化工学报》2020年第8期3839-3848,共10页CIESC Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2017YFC0804501);国家工信部第七代超深水钻井平台创新专项项目(工信部联装【2016】24号)。

摘　　要：综合考虑受灾人员的应急疏散行为与泄漏气体积聚状态的时空变化,结合剂量响应模型提出海洋平台硫化氢泄漏中毒后果动态评估方法。应用所提出的方法对假想的海洋平台硫化氢泄漏事故后果进行评估,事故场景中考虑紧急关断系统(ESD)与放空系统对泄漏速率的影响,结合应急响应时序建立应急撤离时间模型。将基于动态评估方法得出的结果与基于静态评估方法、半动态评估方法得出的结果进行对比。基于静态评估方法、半动态评估方法与动态评估方法所得作业人员硫化氢吸入剂量分别为1.062×10^5、7.230×10^4和6.020×10^4,对应的死亡率分别为5.396×10^-2、2.848×10^-3和4.571×10^-4。对比结果表明所提出的动态评估方法更细致地考虑了事故场景中的动态因素,能有效提高事故后果预测的准确度。A dynamic assessment approach for the consequences of H2S-containing natural gas leakage accident is proposed, the temporal-spatial variation of released gas and emergency evacuation are both considered. The proposed approach is applied to a hypothetical accident scenario concerning H2S-containing natural gas leakage on an offshore platform. A time-varying leakage profile is adopted considering the interference of emergency shutdown system(ESD) and blowdown system. An emergency evacuation time model is established considering the time sequence of emergency evacuation. In addition, the results obtained with the proposed approach are compared with that obtained with static assessment approach and semi-dynamic assessment approach. The inhalation dose of H2S based on the static assessment method, semi-dynamic assessment method, and dynamic assessment method are 1.062×10^5,7.230×10^4 and 6.020×10^4, while the corresponding mortality rates are 5.396×10^-2,2.848×10^-3 and 4.571×10^-4. The comparison results show that the proposed dynamic evaluation method more carefully considers the dynamic factors in the accident scene, which can effectively improve the accuracy of accident consequence prediction.

关 键 词：动态泄漏 应急疏散 动态评估 海洋平台 硫化氢 计算流体力学 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]