消费税下划地方改革的政策效应及分享方案设计——基于数值模拟  

Policy Effect and Sharing Scheme Design of Local Reform under Consumption Tax:Based on the Numerical Simulation

作　　者：唐明[1] 卢睿 TANG Ming;LU Rui(School of Economy and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha 410079)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财贸研究》2020年第6期68-84,共17页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：湖南省财政与经济发展中心2020年重点招标课题“消费税改革对我省财政经济的影响研究”;湖南省社会科学基金项目“推动湖南高质量发展的财政政策体系研究”(19YBA066);国家自然科学基金项目“风险链视阈下的地方政府债务风险:多维评估、先导预警与常态治理研究”(71673077)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：以国发〔2019〕21号文件提出的“后移消费税征收环节并稳步下划地方”总体规划为基准方案,通过数值模拟来评估消费税下划地方改革的政策效应。研究发现:2/3省份消费税可担当地方主体税种或重要税种,能较大程度缓解地方财政收支压力,具有充当地方税的可行性;消费地征税原则下人均地方消费税分享区域均衡大大提升,但有可能引发新的区域不均衡;生产地优势省份改革受损,消费地优势省份两极分化。因此,仅以消费指数为分享规则的国发〔2019〕21号基准方案存在较大缺陷,亟须优化改进。According to the basic plan of Delaying the Collection Link of Consumption Tax and Planning the Local Area Steadily put forward in the[2019]No.21 document issued by the state,this paper simulates and evaluates the policy effect of local reform under consumption tax.The research has found that 2/3 of provinces’consumption tax can act as local main tax or important tax,which can relieve the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure to a large extent,thus having the feasibility of acting as local tax.What’s more,the regional balance of per capita local consumption tax sharing under the principle of consumption place taxation is greatly improved,while it may lead to new regional imbalance.As for the reform of advantageous provinces in production places,it is under influence,which leads to the polarization of advantageous provinces in consumption places.Therefore,it exists a big defect in the[2019]No.21 benchmark scheme issued by the state that only takes the consumption index as the sharing rule,which is in urgent need to be optimized and improved.

关 键 词：消费税改革 地方税体系 消费税收入分享 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]