世界人口负增长:特征、趋势和应对  

Negative Population Growth in the World:Characteristics,Trends,and Responses

作　　者：陶涛[1,2] 金光照 张现苓 Tao Tao;Jin Guangzhao;Zhang Xianling(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China;Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing,Renmin University of China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China;School of Sociology and Psychology,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学北京社会建设研究院 [3]中国人民大学社会与人口学院 [4]中央财经大学社会与心理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《人口研究》2020年第4期46-61,共16页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金专项项目“新时代中国特色人口学基本理论问题研究”(19VXK07);国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国人口负增长研究”(16BRK004)的支持。

摘　　要：利用2019年世界人口展望数据梳理1950~2018年世界各国(地区)人口负增长状况,并通过同原点比较模型观察中国和典型国家的人口负增长发展路径。研究发现:(1)1950~2018年全球共107个国家(地区)出现人口负增长,其中由人口内在机制导致的有20个;(2)自然负增长国家(地区)除日本外全部集中于欧洲,最长负增长域平均为19.05年,且面临严峻的低生育率和老龄化形势;(3)与德匈俄“进入早,发展慢,程度轻”的模式不同,中日呈现出“进入晚,发展快,长期加速,回弹乏力”的负增长模式,且劳动年龄人口早于总人口缩减,老龄化、高龄化更严重,少儿人口占比更低。人口内在机制导致的人口增长由正转负是一国人口变动模式的分水岭,应尽快探索负增长时代人口发展新规律、短期应急措施和长远规划。Using the WPP2019 data,this article investigates negative population growth across the world during 1950-2018,and compares negative population growth between China and typical countries with identical origin point model.107 countries(regions)in the world experienced negative population growth in 1950-2018,of which 20 were caused by the inherent mechanism of population.These 20 coun⁃tries are all from Europe except Japan,and have experienced 19-year longest negative growth duration on average,and confront low fertility and population ageing.Compared to Germany,Hungary,and Rus⁃sia,negative population growth occurs later in Japan and China,exhibiting a pattern of rapid development,long⁃term acceleration and weak resilience.In addition,the working⁃age population decrease earlier than the total population in Japan and China,ageing is severer,and the proportions of children aged 0-14 are lower.It is of growing significance to explore the new rules of population development,policy responses and long⁃term planning as soon as possible in the negative population growth era.

关 键 词：人口负增长 劳动年龄人口 老龄化 生育水平 政策应对 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]