非常规货币政策、银行贷款与人口老龄化--来自日本的经验证据  

Unconventional Monetary Policy,Bank Lending and Aging Population-Evidence from Japan

作　　者：张卫峰[1,2] 方显仓 刘峻峰[2] Zhang Weifeng;Fang Xiancang;Liu Junfeng(College of Economics,Northwest Normal University;School of Economics,East China Normal University)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学经济学院 [2]华东师范大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2020年第7期45-55,共11页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：传导链条畅通是货币政策发挥作用的基本保障。本文运用日本91家区域性商业银行财务数据构建广义矩估计面板向量自回归模型,研究发现,日本非常规货币政策虽有助于增加银行贷款,但效果非常有限,即货币政策信贷传导渠道阻塞。究其原因,除超低利率催生抵消机制外,人口老龄化引发信贷需求萎缩也难辞其咎,即人口年龄结构与银行贷款间存在倒U型关系,意味着以降低利率、扩大基础货币供给为特征的非常规货币政策可能会失去作用基础。本文借助反证法剖析解释日本信贷增速失衡的"贷款供给收缩观""周期性需求波动观"和"衰退后遗症观",进一步确认了人口老龄化的重要作用。本文的研究对人口老龄化背景下中国货币政策科学决策有重要的启示意义。Unimpeded transmission chain is a basic guarantee for monetary policy.Based on financial data from 91 commercial banks in Japan,the paper finds that unconventional monetary policies could increase bank lending,but the effect is limited,which means the credit transmission channels are blocked.The reason is in addition to a negative mechanism generated by ultra-low interest rates,shrinking credit demand caused by the aging population is another reason.An“inverted U-shaped”relationship between age structure and bank loans means unconventional monetary policy characterized by lowering interest rates and expanding supply of base money has lost its foundation.This paper has important implications for the scientific decision-making of Chinese monetary policy against the background of aging population.According to the findings,this article gives four suggestions.Firstly,monetary policy authority should study the potential correlation between age structure and credit growth rate in depth,and establish a scientific and dynamic monitoring and warning system to reflect the fluctuations of the credit market.Secondly,we should save the room of monetary policy by carefully using large-scale stimulus packages while relying heavily on structural policy tools to vigorously support the development of industries such as scientific and technological innovation,environmental protection,as well as medical,health and old-age care services.Thirdly,the aging of the population means to improve the marketization of interest rates and realize the transformation from quantitative to price model based monetary policy,which is not the end point of the reform and adjustment,and the monetary policy maker should explore a new regulatory system adapted to the aging economy in advance.Lastly,we should draw on international experience to strengthen coordination and cooperation between monetary policies and fiscal policy,the labor market and the social security system,and lift the birth control policy at an appropriate time so as to increase the w

关 键 词：非常规货币政策 信贷传导渠道 人口老龄化 面板向量自回归 人口多项式 

分 类 号：F823[经济管理—财政学] C924[社会学—人口学]