新一轮能源革命条件下我国核电发展战略选择——基于SWOT-AHP框架的分析  

Analysis of China Nuclear Power Industry Development Strategy based on the SWOP-AHP Framework

作　　者：何昉[1] 孔德泰 闫丽蓉 刘达 

机构地区：[1]中国核科技信息与经济研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《中国能源》2020年第7期26-30,共5页Energy of China

摘　　要：核电在新一轮能源革命条件下的战略地位受到能源行业广泛关注。本文采用SWOT框架系统分析了能源革命条件下影响我国核电发展战略的内外部因素,应用层次分析法计算了各因素的影响权重,绘制出核电发展战略四边形。研究结果显示,核电在新一轮能源革命中依然面临较大的发展机遇,但同时外部威胁又十分显著。我国核电产业界应坚定信心,选择机遇型开拓战略,发挥清洁低碳、基荷电源的主要优势,积极争取核电发展空间,同时还应充分重视市场竞争与公众接受度问题,通过降低核电成本、完善公众参与,最小化外部威胁的消极影响,保障核电产业可持续发展。The strategic position of nuclear power under the new energy revolution has attracted wide attention of the energy industry.In this article,we adopt SWOT framework to sort out key factors affecting the strategic choice of nuclear power,and then calculate the weights of each factor with AHP method based on expert scoring,draw the strategic quadrangle to assist strategy selection.The result shows that there is still substantial space for nuclear power development,but external threats such as competition from renewable energies and low public acceptance is also significant.The industry should take the advantages of low-carbon and base-load characteristics of nuclear energy to choose opportunity-oriented expanding strategy to better seize the opportunity,and in the meantime improve market competitiveness and adopt innovated public participation model to minimize the negative effect of external threat factors.

关 键 词：核电 能源革命 SWOT-AHP分析 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]