基于模式集成的松花江流域气候模拟预估  

Climate Simulation and Estimation of Songhua River Basin Based on Model Integration

作　　者：刘智天 郝振纯 徐海卿[3] 鞠琴[1,2] 武冠一 邢若飞[1,2] LIU Zhitian;HAO Zhenchun;XU Haiqing;JU Qin;WU Guanyi;XING Ruofei(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China;Joint International Research Laboratory of Global Change and Water Cycle,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;North China Municipal Engineering Design Research Institute Corporation,Tianjin 300000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学全球变化与水循环国际合作联合实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [4]中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司,天津300000

出　　处：《水力发电》2020年第8期14-18,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402704);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2019B10914);国家重点实验室专项经费资助项目(20195018812)。

摘　　要：以松花江流域为研究对象,采用CMIP5已发布的9个气候模式,模拟1951年~2000年历史降水和气温的月数据,对比实测资料运用3项数理统计指标评估模式的模拟性能;各模式降尺度后应用到4种集成方法。模拟结果表明,Can ESM2和MPI-ESM-MR模式模拟效果较好,多元回归集成表现最佳。利用优选的2个模式方法预估流域下游佳木斯站在RCP4. 5气候情景下未来逐月的降水和气温,并以预估的降水气温为因子构建线性回归模型计算流域未来径流的月变化过程。预估径流结果可为水资源管理及洪旱防治提供数据参考。Taking Songhua River Basin as the research object,nine climate models released by CMIP5 are used to simulate the monthly data of historical precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2000,and three mathematical statistical indicators are used to evaluate the simulation performance of those models compared with the measured data.Each model is scaled down before being applied to four integration methods.The results show that two climate models of CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-MR have better simulation effects,and the multivariate regression integration method performs best.The preferred two climate models are used to estimate the monthly precipitation and temperature of Jiamusi Hydrological Station in the lower reaches of the basin under the climate scenario of RCP4.5 in the future,and then a linear multiple regression model is constructed using these estimated precipitation and temperature as factors to calculate the monthly runoff change of the basin in the future.The estimated runoff results can provide data references for water resources management and flood and drought prevention.

关 键 词：CMIP5气候模式 多模式集成 气候变化 松花江流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]