寿命服从Weibull分布时高价值弹药导弹抽样方法  

Sampling Method of High Value Ammunition Based on Weibull Life Distribution

作　　者：牛跃听 赵晖[1] 李妍[1] 穆希辉 张国志[3] NIU Yueting;ZHAO Hui;LI Yan;MU Xihui;ZHANG Guozhi(Equipment Technology Research Institute, Shenyang Ligong University, Shenyang 110159, Liaoning, China;Unit 32181 of PLA, Shijiazhuang 050000, Hebei, China;Department of Mathematics, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080, Heilongjiang, China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳理工大学装备技术研究院,辽宁沈阳110159 [2]32181部队,河北石家庄050000 [3]哈尔滨理工大学数学系,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《兵工学报》2020年第7期1434-1440,共7页Acta Armamentarii

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61471385);弹药导弹保障技术重点实验室基金项目(2017SYSJ008)。

摘　　要：针对高可靠、长寿命的高价值弹药抽样问题,提出一种高价值弹药导弹寿命评估抽样方法。通过该方法研究高价值弹药导弹寿命服从Weibull分布时样本容量、贮存时间、可靠性评估精度之间的内在关系,给出揭示三者关系的数学公式。结果表明:新方法解决了单发价值高、可供试验研究的样本少、贮存年限(生产年份)不一的高价值弹药导弹可靠性试验最小样本容量问题,为科学评估其贮存寿命提供理论参考;运用新方法对贮存8 a的某型号高价值弹药进行抽样,在置信度0.9、可靠性评估精度指标0.15条件下,该批次贮存8 a的高价值弹药最小样本容量取9发。A sampling method for life evaluation of high-value ammunitions is proposed.The sampling problem of high-value ammunition with high reliability and long life is studied.The intrinsic relationship among sample size,storage time,reliability evaluation accuracy of high-value ammunition when its life-span obeys Weibull distribution is studied,and the mathematical formulas to reveal the relationship among them are given.High-value ammunition has the following characteristics:high single-shot value,fewer samples for experimental study,and different storage years(productive year).These bring a series of difficulties to its sampling.This paper solves the problem of minimum sample size of high-value ammunition in reliability test,and provides theoretical support for scientific evaluation of its storage life.The method is used to sample a certain type of high-value ammunitions stored for 8 years.The minimum sample size of this batch of high-value ammuitions stored for 8 years is 9 with the confidence of 0.9 and the reliability evaluation accuracy index of 0.15.

关 键 词：高价值弹药 导弹 弹药贮存 可靠性试验 最小样本容量 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] TJ760.623[理学—数学]