新常态下中国能源安全动态研究——基于灰色关联TOPSIS模型  

Dynamic Study on China’s Energy Security under the New Normal:Based on Gray Correlation TOPSIS Model

作　　者：李红[1] 智硕楠 LI Hong;ZHI Shuonan(School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《生态经济》2020年第8期57-62,87,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“大数据环境下国家经济安全风险评估和预警研究”(17BGL008)。

摘　　要：开展能源安全的研究有助于了解我国能源发展状况,发现影响能源安全的主要因素,以提升我国能源安全水平。论文从能源供应、能源消费、能源结构和生态环境四个维度构建中国能源安全评价指标体系,采用组合赋权法计算指标权重,通过灰色关联TOPSIS模型对2000-2017年中国能源安全水平进行分析,运用无偏GM(1,1)模型对2018-2024年的能源安全值进行预测。研究结果表明:能源结构与生态环境安全对中国能源安全具有显著影响,未来7年间,中国能源安全指数呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势,一直处于"临界安全"等级。Conducting research on energy security helps to understand China’s energy development and identify the main factors affecting energy security to improve China’s energy security level.This paper constructs China’s energy security evaluation index system from the four dimensions of energy supply,energy consumption,energy structure and ecological environment,uses the combination weighting approach of subjective and objective to calculate the index weight,and make an analysis about the energy security level of China from 2000 to 2017 based on the gray correlation TOPSIS model,then the model of unbiased gray forecasting is selected to predict energy safety value from 2018 to 2024.The results show that:energy structure and ecological environment security have a significant impact on China’s energy security.In the next seven years,China’s energy security index will first decline and then rise,and has been at the "critical security" level.

关 键 词：能源安全 灰色关联TOPSIS模型 组合权重 预测 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2