政治换届、国际关系与中国对外直接投资:交易成本视角  

Leader Turnover, International Relationship and Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Transaction Cost Perspective

作　　者：姜建刚[1] 张建红[2] Jiang Jiangang;Zhang Jianhong

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院 [2]云南财经大学

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2020年第7期33-45,M0002,M0003,共15页World Economy Studies

基　　金：湖南省社会科学基金项目“行政审批改革激励民营企业创新的机制与效果研究”(项目编号:19YBA222);国家自然科学基金项目“母国形象与海外企业合法性的关系研究”(项目编号:71562034);湖南师范大学博士启动项目“东道国政治换届对中国对外直接投资集约边际的影响研究”(项目编号:bq2018121013)资助。

摘　　要：文章利用交易成本理论,探讨东道国政治换届及其和国际关系交互作用对中国对外直接投资的影响。基于2004~2015年中国对外直接投资存量和约100个国家领导人的换届数据,运用系统GMM估计的实证表明,整体上东道国领导人换届与中国对外直接投资之间存在显著负相关,当双边政治关系较疏远而东道国对中国的贸易依赖较弱时,东道国领导人换届更不利于中国对外直接投资。但换届与中国对外直接投资间的负相关关系以及政治关系和贸易依赖对换届的调节作用,还受制于东道国经济发展、国体、政体、政党与换届过程中的竞争状态。此外,东道国领导人换届之前中国对外直接投资显著增加。文章为东道国领导人换届与中国对外直接投资间的关系研究提供了一种解释路径。From the transaction cost perspective,this paper investigates the effect of leader turnover in host country on Chinese Outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) as well as the joint effect of turnover and international relationship. Based on Chinese OFDI stock data and leader turnover about 100 countries from 2004 to 2015,the empirical tests with GMM estimations find that: There is a negative relationship between leader turnover and Chinese OFDI,and the negative relationship gets stronger in case of weaker political relationship as well as the weaker export dependence of host country to China. However,the direct effect of leader turnover and the moderating effect of international relationship are shaped by host country’s economic situation,the form of state,political regime,political party and the competitive degree of turnover procession. Moreover,the ex ante turnover has positive relationship with current OFDI. Our study provides fresh explanation to understand the relationship between leader turnover of host country and Chinese OFD.

关 键 词：交易成本 政治换届 政治关系 贸易依赖 对外直接投资 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系] F125[政治法律—政治学]