基于ERA和PT的舰艇编队多作战想定下效能评价  

Operational Effectiveness Evaluation on Multi-scenario for Naval Formation Based on ERA and PT

作　　者：张有山 黄强 张博孜 许小卫 谢新连[2] ZHANG You-shan;HUANG Qiang;ZHANG Bo-zi;XU Xiao-wei;XIE Xin-lian(Systems Engineering Research Institute,CSSC,Beijing 100094,China;Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶工业系统工程研究院,北京100094 [2]大连海事大学,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2020年第7期35-42,共8页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家重点研发基金(2017YFC0805309);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(3132016358)。

摘　　要：为了解决舰艇编队作战效能评价高度专业性、复杂性及要素间关联性等技术难题,提出了基于证据推理法(ERA)和前景理论(PT)的舰艇编队作战效能评价方法,分两步确定最优的评价指标体系及权重。对于要素间客观存在的关联性,从理论上证明了关联性越低,证据推理法的应用效果越佳,再以此为目标优化效能评价指标体系;运用前景理论构建了指标体系关联度最小、评价能力前景价值最大的非线性优化模型,同时确定指标最优权重,并给出求解方法。为了验证这一方法的有效性,将基于ERA和PT的舰艇编队作战效能评价方法应用于多想定的算例分析,结果表明,提出的方法能有效地解决舰艇编队作战效能的评价问题。On account of highly professional,complexity and factor correlation,the naval formation operation effectiveness evaluating(NFOEE)turn to be a difficult problem in the multi-attribute decision-making field.In order to solve this issue,an evaluation methodbased on evidential reasoning approach(ERA)and prospect theory(PT)is proposed in this paper.The evaluation index system optimizing and weightiness ascertaining process in the method is divided into two steps:firstly,considering that the factors are correlated objectively,it is proved that the lower correlation is,the better application of the ERA.And the effectiveness evalutation system is optimized in this way.Secondly,aimed at the minimum correlation and maximum evaluating ability prospect value of the index system based on PT,a nonlinear optimization model(NOM)is constructed and the optimal weight of factors are determined.A solving algorithm of the NOM is also presented.To verify the effectiveness of the method,the naval formation operation effectiveness evaluating method is applied on a practical case,and the result shows that themethod proposed can solve the NFOEE problem effectively.

关 键 词：舰艇编队 作战效能 评价方法 证据推理法 前景理论 

分 类 号：TJ76[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] U692.4[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]