专家信度优化的装备效能评估方法  

Equipment Effectiveness Evaluation Method Based on Expert Reliability Optimization

作　　者：李发明 党李成[2] 左钦文 李昂 梅刚 LI Fa-ming;DANG Li-cheng;ZUO Qin-wen;LI Ang;MEI Gang(Institute of Chemical Defense,Academy of Military Sciences,Beijing 102205,China;Henan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]军事科学院防化研究院,北京102205 [2]河南省疾病预防控制中心,郑州450000

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2020年第7期66-72,共7页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家重点研发计划基金资助项目(2018YFC0214100)。

摘　　要：针对不同评判专家主观因素影响装备效能评估质量问题,提出一种专家信度优化的装备效能评估方法。该方法以传统层次分析法与模糊量化模型为基础,引入专家信度量化每个专家评判信息的优劣程度,并将专家信度转化为专家权重,利用专家权重分别融合计算层次分析法的指标权重和模糊量化模型的评判结果,从而减少专家主观因素影响,增强了综合评价客观性。其有效性已在某装备效能评估中得到验证。In comprehensive evaluation for equipment effectiveness,the conclusion is often affected by the subjectivity from different judgement experts.To reduce this subjectivity as well as enhance its objectivity,this paper proposes a method of equipment effectiveness evaluation based on expert reliability optimization.Based on the traditional analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the fuzzy quantification model(FQM),the proposed method introduces an expert reliability to quantify the judgment qualities from different judgement experts,and then transforms the expert reliabilities into expert weights.The transformed expert weights are used for the index weight solution in the AHP and the judgment integration in the FQM.As a result,the expert subjectivity is decreased,and the evaluation conclusion becomes more objectively.The effectiveness is verified in equipment effectiveness evaluation.

关 键 词：专家信度 层次分析 指标权重 模糊量化模型 

分 类 号：E920.8[军事—军事装备学] N945.16[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]