后疫情时代的全球石油市场走势分析  

Global Petroleum Market Trend Analysis in Post-COVID-19 Era

作　　者：王佩[1] Wang Pei(China International United Petroleum&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100728,China)

机构地区：[1]中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司,北京100728

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2020年第7期6-12,54,共8页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：2020年,新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,在200多个国家大幅蔓延并严重冲击了世界经济和国际石油市场。受此影响,全球石油库存攀升至近年来新高,主要地区炼油毛利大幅走弱并跌至负值,国际油价暴跌并出现30多年来首次负油价,基准油价格结构和价差发生巨大变化。从中长期来看,后疫情时代的全球经济复苏漫长而艰难,国际政经格局和地缘格局或发生重要变化,远程办公等新形式可能使石油需求峰值提前到来,与此同时,低油价对未来几年的石油供应产生巨大冲击,中长期的世界石油供应更加脆弱。我国在巨变之下要保持战略定力,继续坚定不移地推动能源领域“四革命、一合作”,在国际石油市场争取更大的影响力和话语权。Since the beginning of 2020,the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has swept the globe,spreading quickly in more than 200 countries and hitting hard world economy and international oil market.As a result of this impact,global oil inventory climbed to new highs in recent years,gross refining margin in main regions collapsed to losses,international oil price plummeted into negative territory for the first time in more than 30 years,and the price structure and price spread of benchmark oils changed dramatically.Looking ahead to the medium and long term future in post-COVID-19 era,the road to global economic recovery will be long and difficult,international political,economic and geopolitical landscapes may significantly change,and new ways of working such as telecommuting will bring oil peak date closer.Meanwhile,low oil price will have a huge impact on oil supply in coming years,making world oil supply more fragile in medium to long term.In the face of the great changes,China should make efforts to maintain strategic resolve,push for"Four Revolutions,One Cooperation"in energy field,and strive for greater influence and voice in international oil market.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 石油需求 石油供应 页岩油 国际油价 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]