计及负载随机性的设备电压暂降停机概率评估  

Evaluation of equipment malfunction probability considering load randomness

作　　者：吴国沛 许中 何淇彰 陈伟坤[2] 钟庆[2] WU Guopei;XU Zhong;HE Qizhang;CHEN Weikun;ZHONG Qing(Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510600,China;School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]广州供电局有限公司,广东广州510600 [2]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510641

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2020年第8期174-178,共5页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：中国南方电网公司科技项目(GZHKJXM20170141)。

摘　　要：针对电压暂降下设备停机的不确定性,提出计及负载随机性的不同电压暂降下的设备停机概率评估方法。利用电压耐受曲线分析不同电压暂降下设备停机的不确定性,并对残余电压和持续时间表示的二维空间进行区域划分,获得不同区域内的设备停机不确定性特点;根据不同区域内影响设备停机的因素和设备负载率概率密度函数,建立设备停机的概率评估模型,给出概率评估方法的应用流程。以工业中常用的变频调速系统为评估对象,对所提方法进行了验证。该方法有效计及负载随机性和不同负载率下的电压暂降耐受能力,能更准确地反映电压暂降下设备停机的不确定性。Taking the uncertainty of equipment malfunction under voltage sag into account,an evaluation method of equipment malfunction probability under different voltage sags is proposed with the consideration of load randomness.VTC(Voltage Tolerance Curve)is used to analyze the uncertainty of equipment malfunction under different voltage sags,the two-dimensional space represented by residual voltage and duration is divided to different zones,and the uncertainty characteristics of equipment malfunction in different zones are obtained.An evaluation model of equipment malfunction probability is built according to the factors influencing equipment malfunction and the probability density function of equipment load ratio in different zones,and the application flowchart of probability evaluation method is given.The variable frequency speed control system commonly used in industry is taken as the evaluation object to verify the proposed method.The proposed method effectively considers voltage sag tolerance ability under load randomness and different load ratios,and can reflect the uncertainty of equipment malfunction under voltage sag more accurately.

关 键 词：电能质量 电压暂降 停机概率 电压耐受曲线 

分 类 号：TM761[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]