基于形态分析和模糊一致矩阵识别技术机会  

An analysis of technology opportunities based on morphology analysis and fuzzy consistent matrix identification method

作　　者：李乾瑞[1] 郭俊芳 朱东华[1] Li Qianrui;Guo Junfang;Zhu Donghua(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Information and Electronics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学信息与电子学院,北京100081

出　　处：《科研管理》2020年第7期33-41,共9页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目:“基于语义triz的新兴技术创新路径预测研究”(71373019;2014.01-2017.12)。

摘　　要：技术创新已成为推动发展的第一动力,组合创新或整合创新已成为技术创新的重要形式。本文以此为出发点,将形态分析思想引入到技术评价中,提出了一套基于形态分析和模糊一致矩阵方法的技术机会分析模型。该模型首先采用SAO语义挖掘方法构建技术形态矩阵,并开展形态分析,形成技术形态组合的备选集;其次,构建基于技术价值、社会经济效用、产业化可行性和在中国产业化的潜力4个维度的技术形态组合评价体系;再次,引入模糊一致矩阵方法对得到的技术形态组合开展综合评价和排序,识别技术创新机会;最后,本文以染料敏化太阳能电池技术为例开展实证研究,证实了该方法的可行性和有效性,实证结果对染料敏化太阳能电池领域具有重要指导意义。With economic globalization and rapid development of science and technology, technology innovation has become the primary driver of economic development. As we know, technological innovation can be incremental innovation or integrated innovation, which has become an important form of technological innovation. It means that we can realize technological innovation through recombining existing technologies. Starting from this point, this paper proposes a new method to identify technology opportunity based on morphological analysis, entropy weight method and fuzzy consistent matrix method. The model divides the analytical process into three steps: 1) Constructing the technical morphological matrix and conduct morphological analysis;2) Constructing evaluation index system of technical morphological matrix;3) Conducting technology evaluation based on fuzzy consistent matrix and identifying potential technical morphological combination. The implementation process of the model is as follows. Firstly, we use SAO(subject-action-object) semantic mining method to construct technology morphology matrix. Then, we conduct morphological analysis and form a candidate set of technical morphological combinations. Here, the feature word frequency vector representation method is used to reflect the technical morphological combinations of each patent. Through the analysis of all combinations, we divide the candidate set of technical morphological combinations into developed and unoccupied combinations. Secondly, to evaluate the commercialization potential of technology, we establish the commercial potential evaluation index system of technical morphological combinations. The evaluation index systems is developed from four aspects, including technical value evaluation, technical utility evaluation, and technical industrialization feasibility evaluation, and technical industrialization potential in China. There are eleven indicators in the evaluation system. Thirdly, the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each eval

关 键 词：技术机会分析 形态分析法 模糊一致矩阵 染料敏化太阳能电池 

分 类 号：G301[文化科学] G306