基于灰色组合模型的飞机地面积霜预测  

Prediction of Aircraft Surface Area Frost Based on Grey Combination Model

作　　者：王涛[1,2] 刘建华[1,3] 杨亚磊[1,3] 陈斌 WANG Tao;LIU Jian-hua;YANG Ya-lei;CHEN Bin(Institute of Aviation Ground Special Equipment,Civil Aviation University of China,300300,China;College of Aerospace Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,300300,China;College of Electronic Information and Automation,Civil Aviation University of China,300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学航空地面特种设备研究基地,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学航空工程学院,天津300300 [3]中国民航大学电子信息与自动化学院,300300

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2020年第7期72-77,共6页Computer Simulation

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学专项(3122016B004)。

摘　　要：飞机地面积霜对飞机的飞行安全带来隐患,往往导致航班延误。针对飞机地面积霜预测的问题,建立了灰色理论离散形式DGM(1,1)的飞机地面积霜预测模型。由于上述模型缺少对线性因素的考虑,故构建了基于GM(1,1)灰色模型与线性回归模型相结合的飞机地面积霜灰色组合预测模型。在人工气象室中搭建了模拟飞机地面积霜环境的实验系统,通过调节模拟实验系统中空气温度、相对湿度的大小,对所建的两种模型进行参数求解和仿真并与实验结果对比。结果表明,相比DGM(1,1)模型,飞机地面积霜灰色组合预测模型的平均绝对误差减小了18.17%。Aircraft ground frost brings hidden dangers to flight safety,often leading to flight delays.Aiming at the problem of aircraft ground frost prediction,a grey theory discrete form DGM(1,1)model for aircraft ground frost prediction ws established.Because the model lacks the consideration of linear factors,a grey combination forecasting model of frost on aircraft ground based on GM(1,1)grey model and linear regression model was constructed.An experimental system for simulating frost environment on airplane ground was built in an artificial meteorological room.By adjusting the air temperature and relative humidity in the simulation experimental system,the parameters of the two models were solved and simulated,and the results were compared with the experimental results.The results show that compared with DGM(1,1)model,the average absolute error of Grey Combination Forecasting Model for frost on aircraft ground is reduced by 18.17%.

关 键 词：积霜预测 灰色组合模型 后验差 积冰传感器 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]