基于前景理论的住房市场卖方定价决策模型  

Model of seller’s pricing decision in the housing market based on prospect theory

作　　者：龚朴[1] 张云怡 Gong Pu;Zhang Yunyi(School of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2020年第3期340-353,共14页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71231005,71671076,71991473).

摘　　要：为揭示住房市场周期性变化中卖方心理因素与定价的关系,在匹配模型中引入价格约束因子,并将前景理论应用于搜寻模型,建立了非风险中性的卖方定价决策模型.通过模型分析探究了议价能力、风险偏好和损失厌恶对卖方挂牌价格和保留价格的影响.研究表明,无论在市场上行还是下行时期,较强的议价能力会激励卖方提高保留价格和挂牌价格,较强的风险厌恶会降低挂牌价格.在市场上行时期,卖方风险厌恶越强,保留价格越低.在市场下行时期,卖方风险厌恶或损失厌恶越强,保留价格越高,而风险追寻的卖方在不同议价能力下对保留价格的设定策略不同.To reveal the relationship between the seller’s psychological factors and housing pricing in periodic markets,this paper proposes a non-risk-neutral model of the seller’s pricing decision,by introducing a priceconstraint factor into model matching and applying the prospect theory into model searching.Through model analysis,this paper studies the effect of bargaining power,risk preference,and loss aversion on the seller’s list price and reservation price.The results indicate that,both in the upward and downward periods,strong bargaining power encourages a seller to raise the list price and reservation price,and strong risk aversion decreases the list price.In the upward period,the reservation price decreases with risk aversion.In the downward period,the reservation price increases with risk aversion or loss aversion,while a risk-seeking seller has different strategies for the reservation price under different bargaining powers.

关 键 词：前景理论 损失厌恶 议价能力 卖方定价 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]