改进的层次分析法与模糊综合评价在评估水库诱发地震震级上限中的应用  

Application of improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in assessing the upper limit of reservoir induced earthquake magnitude

作　　者：李龙师 金波[1,2] 冯志仁[1,2] LI Longshi;JIN Bo;FENG Zhiyin(Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration of China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2020年第3期223-232,共10页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项(2019C08);中国地震局三结合项目(3JH-201902021);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(LH2019E96)。

摘　　要：为了评估水库诱发地震震级上限,收集了150余例水库诱发地震的震例资料;利用改进的层次分析法优化了各评价指标的权重;应用模糊综合评价方法评估了水库诱发地震震级上限;结合二滩水电站水库诱发地震实例与目前评估水库诱发地震震级最常用的灰色聚类分析法的评价结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的震级上限评估方法评价结果更加可靠,可对水库及水工建筑物的建设位置及抗震设防提供参考。In order to evaluate the maximum magnitude that may be induced by reservoir impoundment,more than 150 cases of reservoir induced earthquake data were collected,the weight of each evaluation index was optimized by the improved analytic hierarchy process AHP method,and the upper limit of reservoir induced earthquake magnitude was evaluated by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;Taking Ertan Hydropower Station Reservoir Induced Earthquake as an example,the evaluation results obtained by the method described in this paper are compared with the evaluation results of the most commonly used grey clustering analysis method to evaluate the magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake.The results show that the evaluation results of the upper limit method of magnitude combined with AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are more reliable,which can provide reference for the construction location and seismic fortification of reservoirs and hydraulic structures.

关 键 词：水库诱发地震 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 震级上限 

分 类 号：P315.61[天文地球—地震学]