基于CART决策树回归的乡村信息化水平测度模型研究  

Rural Informatization Measurement Model Based on CART Regression

作　　者：申媛媛 邬锦雯[2] 刘鑫东 Shen Yuanyuan;Wu Jinwen;Liu Xindong(The Third Affiliated Hospital,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510630,China;School of Economics&Management,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学附属第三医院,广东广州510630 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2020年第14期91-98,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：广东省研究生教育创新计划项目“情报学硕士研究生‘三跨’方式培养方式探索与实践”(2018JGXM31)。

摘　　要：根据我国农村信息化建设现状,通过CART决策树回归法对测度指标进行重要性筛选,形成农村信息化水平测度指标模型;然后运用因子分析和聚类分析,对我国31个省份农村信息化水平进行比较研究。研究结果显示:所构建的农村信息化水平测度指标模型预测准确率高,可以导向乡村振兴目标;对指标的公因子分析符合当前我国农村信息化发展特点,其中江苏、广东、浙江的农村信息化发展水平领先,沿海地区农村信息化建设较好,各区域农村信息化发展水平呈现不平衡状态。最后提出发挥长三角、珠三角等城市群的辐射带动作用,加大对偏远地区农村信息资源的投入,在信息基础设施建设和信息资源环境方面因地制宜等启示和建议,以期为乡村信息化发展提供理论参考和借鉴。According to the present situation of rural informatization construction in China, this paper selects the importance of measure index by CART decision tree regression method to form the rural informatization level measurement index model, and then uses factor analysis and cluster analysis to compare the level of rural informatization in various provinces of China. The results show that the model has high prediction accuracy and can guide the goal of rural revitalization;the common factor analysis of the index accords with the current characteristics of rural informatization development in China, among which Jiangsu, Guangdong and Zhejiang have the leading level of rural informatization development, the construction of rural informatization in coastal areas is better, and the regional development of the whole country presents an unbalanced state. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions: giving full play to the radiation-driven role of urban agglomerations such as Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, increasing the investment in rural information resources in remote areas, adapting measures to local conditions in the construction of information infrastructure and information resources environment, etc., in order to provide theoretical reference and reference for the development of rural information.

关 键 词：乡村振兴 CART回归法 因子分析 信息化水平测度 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学] F224[经济管理—国民经济]