广州市生活垃圾处理的温室气体排放现状与预测  

Current Status and Forecasts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Domestic Waste Treatment of Guangzhou

作　　者：谢鹏程[1] 王文军[1] 王文秀[1] 廖翠萍[1] 赵黛青[1] Xie Pengcheng;Wang Wenjun;Wang Wenxiu;Liao Cuiping;Zhao Daiqing(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2020年第14期247-252,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：目前广州市温室气体排放增量的主要来源已从能源活动逐步过渡到废弃物处理,其中90%以上来源于生活垃圾处理。广州市生活垃圾处理以填埋为主,填埋处理的温室气体排放量占垃圾处理温室气体排放总量的95%左右。以广州市常住人口、人均垃圾产生量、垃圾焚烧电厂日处理能力、甲烷回收率等参数设置3种情景,预测到2035年广州市生活垃圾处理量及其产生的温室气体排放量。预测结果发现:2035年前,广州市垃圾产生量不会出现增长拐点,垃圾处理能力缺口将于2033年前后出现;2019年,由于广州市新增垃圾焚烧厂投入运营,垃圾处理温室气体排放量出现增长拐点;到2035年,垃圾处理温室气体排放量在减排情景下将较政策情景下降低31%,在强化减排情景下较政策情景下降低48%;垃圾焚烧相对填埋方式具有更好的温室气体减排潜力。At present,the main source contributing to the increase of Guangzhou’s greenhouse gas emissions has witnessed a gradual transition from energy consumption to waste treatment, and more than 90% of the waste treatment emissions come from domestic waste disposal. Domestic waste disposal in Guangzhou is mainly based on landfills, and the greenhouse gas emissions from landfill disposal account for about 95% of the total waste greenhouse gas emissions. This paper sets up three scenarios based on parameters including permanent resident population, amount of waste generated per capita, daily disposal capacity of waste incineration power plants and methane recovery rate, to predict the domestic waste output and the consequent greenhouse gas emissions in Guangzhou by the year 2035. The prediction results show that there will not be a growth tipping point in per capita domestic waste output in Guangzhou before 2035, but there is going to be a gap in the city’s waste disposal capacity around 2033;the emissions from waste disposal, on the other hand, would meet with a tipping point in 2019 due to the new waste incineration plants;by 2035, the emissions under the emission reduction scenario would be 31% less than that under the policy scenario, and the emissions under the intensified emission reduction scenario would be 48% less than that under the policy scenario. Waste incineration has better greenhouse gas emission reduction potential compared to landfill.

关 键 词：生活垃圾 排放 预测 广州 

分 类 号：X799.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F205[经济管理—国民经济]