财政的货币效应——新市场财政学框架下的财政-央行“双主体”货币调控机制  

Monetary Effect of Fiscal Department:The Money Regulation Mechanisms with a“Dual-subject”Fiscal Department and Central Bank Framework Based on the Neo-public Finance Theory

作　　者：李俊生 姚东旻 李浩阳 Li Junsheng;Yao Dongmin;Li Haoyang

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心

出　　处：《管理世界》2020年第6期1-25,M0004,共26页Journal of Management World

基　　金：中央财经大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金“新市场财政学理论体系研究”(024050319008)的资助。

摘　　要：主流财政理论和货币理论均将中央银行视为货币政策调控的单一主体,进而忽视了政府财政部门的调控作用。本文基于新市场财政学的"市场平台观",以市场上货币流通的运行机制为视角,以货币市场为平台,探索了政府财政部门在国库集中收付制度基础上,通过财政收支活动和国库现金管理活动所形成的对货币流通量M2的影响能力和调控能力及其形成机理,并构建模型,运用我国财政、央行的相关数据对其进行了实证检验。本文实证检验与分析结果表明,我国政府财政部门以国库集中收付制度为基础,通过财政收支活动和国库现金管理活动对市场货币流通体系形成了强大的影响力,并且由于财政活动必须依据我国《预算法》等相关的法律法规运作,使得政府财政部门的货币影响力相对独立于中央银行的货币政策,从而在客观上形成了财政—央行"双主体"的货币调控框架。本文的数据测算和实证检验结果发现,2000~2018年市场货币流通体系中有44.31%的M2是受政府财政部门影响、甚至调控的,并且该比例仍处于增长趋势,2018年度直接受制于财政影响甚至被政府财政部门调控的货币流通量M2的比例已超过50%,从而证明了政府财政部门在客观是已经成了财政—央行"双主体"货币调控框架体系的一个重要主体。Both the mainstream fiscal and money theories regard the central bank as the sole political subject of money regulation,and thus ignore the essential effect of the fiscal department on this issue.Based on the neo-public finance's umarket platform"principle,this paper explores the fiscal department's capacity to affect and regulate money circulation M2 in the platform of money market,which is realized through fiscal revenue&expenditure and treasury cash management under the centralized payment system of the treasury.We also analyze the forming mechanism of the cal department's monetary effect,we build a model to conduct empirical tests with relevant data from China's fiscal department and the central bank.The empirical results and analyses imply that under the centralized payment system of the treasury,China's fiscal department has great influences on the money circulation system through the process of fiscal revenue&expenditure and treasury cash management.Furthermore,since those fiscal activities must operate under laws such as the Budget Law,the fiscal department's monetary effect is independent of the central bank's monetary policies,which objectively form the"dual-subject”Fiscal Department-Central Bank framework of money regulation.The calculation shows that the average fiscal proportion in money regulation has reached 44.31%since 2000 and still been increasing,which confirms that the fiscal department has objectively become a significant subject of the 44dual-subjectn framework of money regulation.

关 键 词：国库运行 财政存款 货币流通 “双主体”货币调控机制 财政政策 货币政策 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F822