基于LOGISTIC拟合的动态技术轨道识别与评价研究  

Research on Identification and Evaluation of Dynamic Technological Trajectory Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：汪锦霞 刘向[1] WANG Jinxia;LIU Xiang(School of information management,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学信息管理学院,武汉430079

出　　处：《情报工程》2020年第3期63-77,共15页Technology Intelligence Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“专利引证网络中创新节点的浮现与长期演化研究”(71673106)。

摘　　要：准确而有效地识别技术轨道具有十分重要的理论和实践意义,评价识别出的技术轨道的合理性也是当前研究重点之一。本研究结合技术生命周期理论和多波LOGISTIC拟合对技术发展阶段进行了划分,运用主路径方法识别各个阶段的技术轨道,将分阶段技术轨道和全阶段技术轨道相结合。通过将其路径上的节点的技术主题与该阶段的所有专利数据的主题聚类结果进行比较,证实了分阶段识别出的技术轨道符合该领域的技术主题,并揭示了动态技术轨道能够更精细的展示技术发展的脉络细节。Accurate and effective identification of technological trajectory is of great theoretical and practical significance,and the evaluation of the rationality of the technological trajectory is also one of the current research focuses.In this study,the technology development stages are divided based on the technology life cycle theory and multiple-wave logistic fitting.The main path method is used to identify the technological trajectory in each stage,and the technology tracks in different stages are combined with the technology tracks in all stages.By comparing the technical topic of the node on its path with the topic clustering results of all patent data in this stage,it is confirmed that the technological trajectory identified in this stage conforms to the technical topic in this field,and reveals that the dynamic technical track can show the details of the technical development more precisely.

关 键 词：引文网络 主路径分析 LOGISTIC拟合 聚类 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]