疫情下美国总体安全态势演进:大国竞争、经济压力与军事转型  

Evolvement of the U.S.Overall Security Status after Covid-19:Great Power Competition,Economic Pressure,and Military Transformation

作　　者：祁昊天[1] Qi Haotian

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,100871

出　　处：《国际政治研究》2020年第3期167-183,M0005,共18页The Journal of International Studies

摘　　要：新冠疫情给美国总体国家安全带来了新的课题。在以大国竞争为战略转向重心的前提下,美国已在政治动员、作战思想、装备研发、力量结构等各方面开启了应对新兴军事大国的转型准备。这一转型虽有政治指导和军事顶层设计,但由于战略惯性、组织习惯、政军关系、军种政治、军工利益集团等多重因素作用,在重点方向的选择方面始终表现得较为迟疑,缺乏果断的战略权衡、取舍与优化。新冠疫情对美国经济与金融领域产生了极大影响和冲击,而美国政府与美联储的财政、货币及债务收购政策又将进一步增强疫情时期美国国民经济基本面的不确定性。在中短期内,新的经济金融环境将为美国军事转型增加压力与阻力。但中长期来看,面对新的总体安全目标优先排序、经济基础及军事战略环境,疫情下的经济金融政策影响将可能助推加速美国大国竞争的军事准备与转型。Covid-19 has brought new challenges to the overall national security of the United States.With great power competition as the new orientation of strategic pivot,the United States has launched a transformation in mobilization,doctrine,R&D,armed force structure and other aspects to face potential challenges posed by emerging military powers.Although this transformation has toplevel political and military design,there has been a hesitancy in determining the key directions and a lack of decisive strategic weighing,tradeoffs and optimizations.Covid-19 has dealt a heavy blow to the U.S.economy and financial markets.In the short to medium term,the new economic and financial environment will add pressure on and resistance to the U.S.military transformation.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 美国军事 总体国家安全 大国竞争 美国军事战略 金融霸权 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学] E712[政治法律—中外政治制度] F171.2[军事—军事理论]