不同运检策略对变压器年停运时间的影响  

Effect of Different Operational Maintenance and Repair Strategies on Annual Downtime of Transformer

作　　者：孙慧君 何永秀[1] 熊威[1,2] 张岩 尤立莎 SUN Huijun;HE Yongxiu;XIONG Wei;ZHANG Yan;YOU Lisha(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Changde Power Supply Branch,Changde 415000,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网湖南省电力有限公司常德供电分公司,湖南常德415000

出　　处：《中国电力》2020年第8期91-99,共9页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(能源互联网电力与信息深度融合的风险元传递理论模型与应用研究,71671065)。

摘　　要：衡量不同运检策略对变压器年停运时间的影响,有利于变压器检修决策的优化和设备实物资产管理水平的提高。首先,描述变压器的运检策略及其寿命评估,然后,基于变压器的故障率对其运行状态进行蒙特卡洛模拟,得到变压器的无故障持续时间的概率分布。结合变压器役龄回退分析模型,构建变压器年停运时间计算模型,最后,分析不同运检策略对变压器年停运时间的影响。通过算例分析,证明了该模型的可行性,基于大数据的状态检修对于缩短变压器年停运时间效果更优。Transformer’s life cycle is conducive to the optimization of transformer maintenance decisions and the improvement of equipment physical asset.Measuring the impact of different transportation inspection strategies on the annual outage time of transformers is beneficial to measuring the impact of different transportation inspection strategies on the annual outage time of transformers,which is beneficial to the optimization of transformer maintenance decisions and the improvement of equipment physical asset management.This paper first describes the transformer inspection strategy and its life assessment,and then performs Monte Carlo simulation on the operating state based on the fault rate of the transformer,and obtains the probability distribution of the transformer’s faultless duration,combined with the transformer age regression analysis.The model is used to construct the calculation model of the annual outage time of the transformer.Finally,the influence of different transportation inspection strategies on the annual outage time of the transformer is analyzed.The feasibility of the model is proved by a case study.It can be seen that the statebased maintenance based on big data is better for shortening the annual outage time of the transformer.

关 键 词：变压器 运检策略 蒙特卡洛模拟 役龄回退 年停运时间 

分 类 号：TM407[电气工程—电器]