中国居民消费与收入的长短期非对称性动态关系  

Long Term and Short term Asymmetric Dynamic Relationship Between Consumption and Income of Chinese Residents

作　　者：徐小君[1] 刘欣瑶 XU Xiao-jun;LIU Xin-yao

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第4期84-96,共13页Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目:我国新型货币政策的结构调整功能及其有效性研究(17BJY192)。

摘　　要：为考察我国居民如何调整消费以适应收入的变化,采用1978—2017年城镇和农村居民消费和收入数据,运用非线性自回归分布滞后NARDL模型,对收入影响消费的非对称性特征进行了实证研究。结果显示:1.城镇居民由于流动性约束的存在,正向临时性收入变化导致消费增长的程度大于负向临时性收入变化导致消费减少的程度;2.农村居民由于风险规避和预防性储蓄的原因,正向临时性收入变化导致消费增长的程度小于负向临时性收入变化导致消费减少的程度。研究有助于认识和理解我国居民消费的动态变化过程及原因,从而对政府部门制定消费相关政策有着参考意义。In order to investigate how Chinese residents adjust consumption to adapt to the change of income,this paper makes an empirical study on the asymmetric characteristics of income affecting consumption by using the data of urban and rural residents’consumption and income from 1978 to 2017 and the nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model(NARDL).The results show that:(1)due to the liquidity constraints in urban residents,the degree of consumption growth caused by positive temporary income change is greater than that of consumption reduction caused by negative temporary income change;(2)because of risk aversion and precautionary savings of rural residents,the degree of consumption growth caused by the positive temporary income is less than that of consumption reduction caused by negative temporary income.This research is helpful to understand the dynamic change and reasons of China’s residents’consumption,and also has reference significance for the government departments to formulate relevant consumption policies.

关 键 词：居民消费 临时性收入 持久性收入 非线性自回归分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]