我国经济高质量发展指数构建与测度  

Construction and Measurement of China’s High-quality Economic Development Index

作　　者：洪宇 马成文 Hong Yu;Ma Chengwen(Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第13期21-25,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金资助项目(ACY2017252)。

摘　　要：文章基于2001-2016年省际面板数据,采用索洛经济增长模型和SBM超效率模型测度得到技术进步率和技术效率,并根据灰色系统理论模型构建我国经济高质量发展指数,分析其与技术进步水平、技术效率之间的联系。结果显示:我国将会继续保持经济高质量发展,但经济增长速度不会无限下滑;各地区技术进步水平和技术效率具有波动式上升的趋势;我国经济高质量发展指数每年呈现递增的态势,且其增长与第三产业贡献率、R&D经费支出占比、引进及吸收国外技术费用占比等因素显著相关;GM(0,N)模型结果显示,技术效率系数较大,说明我国技术进步上升水平遇到瓶颈,应在现有资源的基础上,加强重视技术要素的合理利用,进一步提高科技创新水平;加强经济发展反哺科技发展力度,形成经济高质量发展的良性循环。Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2001 to 2016, this paper uses the Solow economic growth model and the SBM super-efficiency model to obtain the technological progress rate and technical efficiency, and then accords to the grey system theory model to construct the high-quality economic development index of China. Finally, the paper analyzes the link between the index and technological advancement and technical efficiency. The results show that China will continue to maintain high-quality economic development, but the economic growth rate will not decline indefinitely;the level of technological progress and technical efficiency in various regions presents a fluctuating upward trend;China’s high-quality economic development index shows an progressively increasing trend every year, and its growth is significantly related to the factors such as the contribution rate of the tertiary industry, the proportion of R&D expenditures, the proportion of cost of introducing and absorbing foreign technology and so on. The results of the GM(0,N) model show that the technical efficiency coefficient is large, indicating that the rising level of technological progress in China encounters bottlenecks. We should be based on the existing resources, and pay more attention to the rational use of technical elements, and further improve the level of scientific and technological innovation. We also should strengthen economic development in return for scientific and technological development, so as? to form a virtuous cycle of high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：经济高质量发展 技术进步 技术效率 索洛经济增长模型 灰色系统理论 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]