Distribution Changes of Chinese Skink(Eumeces chinensis) in China: the Impacts of Global Climate Change  

作　　者：Chen YANG Songhua TANG Zhenhua LUO 

机构地区：[1]Chengdu Institute of Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China [2]Institute of Zoology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [3]Molecular and Behavioral Ecology Research Group,School of Life Sciences,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China

出　　处：《Asian Herpetological Research》2020年第2期132-138,共7页亚洲两栖爬行动物研究（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31500316)。

摘　　要：Repaid global climate changes in temperature and rainfall influence the species distribution and diversity patterns.Chinse skink is a common species with large population and widely distribution in China.To access potential effect of climate changes on the unendangered species,we used the maximum-entropy modeling(MaxEnt)method to estimate the current and future potential distributions of Chinese Skink.Predictions were based on two periods(2050 and 2070),three general circulation models(GCMs:BCC-CSM1-1,HadGEM2-ES,MIROC5),four representative concentration pathways(RCP:2.6,4.5,6.0 and 8.0)and 28 environmental variables including topography,human impact,bio-climate and habitat.We found that the model were better fit with high values in AUC,KAPPA and TSS.The jackknife tests showed that variables of BIO9,BIO14,BIO15,HFI and GDP were relatively higher contributions to the model.Although the size of suitable areas for skink have less effect by future climate change under full and mull dispersal hypothesis,we should still focuse on the effect of human impact and climate changes on the protection and management for Chinese skink due to the variables uncertainty.

关 键 词：climate change MAXENT prediction species distribution model unendangered species 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]